相关论文: Impact Probability Under Aleatory And Epistemic Un…

We assess the risk of an Earth impact for asteroid (99942) Apophis by means of a statistical analysis accounting for the uncertainty of both the orbital solution and the Yarkovsky effect. We select those observations with either rigorous…

The aim is to show that in case of low probability of asteroid collision with Earth, the appropriate selection and weighing of the data are crucial for the impact investigation, and to analyze the impact possibilities using extensive…

Apophis' current trajectory takes it safely past our planet at a distance of several Earth radii on 2029 April 13. Here the possibility is considered that Apophis could collide with a small asteroid, like the ones that frequently and…

The potentially hazardous asteroid (101955) 1999 RQ36 has the possibility of collision with the Earth in the latter half of the 22nd century, well beyond the traditional 100-year time horizon for routine impact monitoring. The probabilities…

Asteroid 2009 FD could impact Earth between 2185 and 2196. The long term propagation to the possible impacts and the intervening planetary encounters make 2009 FD one of the most challenging asteroids in terms of hazard assessment. To…

Summary: In the past decade both scientists and laymen have probably heard at least once through the newspapers, TV and Internet that a new asteroid has been discovered with non-zero (sometimes "high") probability of collision with the…

Tumbling asteroids belong to a small group of objects, whose angular velocity vector is unaligned with any of its principal axes of inertia. This leads to challenging efforts to model the trajectory of any spacecraft designed to orbit these…

Near-Earth asteroid (410777) 2009 FD is a potentially hazardous asteroid with potential impacts on Earth at the end of the 22nd century. The astrometry collected during the 2019 apparition provides information on the trajectory of (410777)…

The Monte Carlo method of the nominal orbit clonning was applied to the case of 99942 Apophis, the asteroid from the Aten group. Calculations based on observations from the time interval of 2004 03 15 - 2008 01 09 have shown that the…

We explore the effects of the 2029 Earth encounter on asteroid (99942) Apophis' non-principal axis spin state, leveraging refined orbit, spin state, and inertia information provided by more recent optical and radar observations. Propagating…

The 99942 Apophis close encounter with Earth in 2029 may provide information about asteroid's physical characteristics and measurements of Earth's effects on the asteroid surface. In this work, we analysed the surface and the nearby…

Large potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) are capable of causing a global catastrophe in the event of a planetary collision. Thus, rapid assessment of such an object's physical characteristics is crucial for determining its potential…

When an asteroid has a few observations over a short time span the information contained in the observational arc could be so little that a full orbit determination may be not possible. One of the methods developed in recent years to…

We aim at providing a preliminary approach on the dynamics of a spacecraft in orbit about the asteroid (99942) Apophis during its Earth close approach. The physical properties from the polyhedral shape of the target are derived assigning…

The near-Earth asteroid (99942) Apophis is a potentially hazardous asteroid. We obtained far-infrared observations of this asteroid with the Herschel Space Observatory's PACS instrument at 70, 100, and 160 micron. These were taken at two…

In this paper we perform an assessment of the 2880 Earth impact risk for asteroid (29075) 1950 DA. To obtain reliable predictions we analyze the contribution of the observational dataset and the astrometric treatment, the numerical error in…

Some risks have extremely high stakes. For example, a worldwide pandemic or asteroid impact could potentially kill more than a billion people. Comfortingly, scientific calculations often put very low probabilities on the occurrence of such…

In this paper we define the a posteriori probability W. This quantity is introduced with the aim of suggesting a reliable interpretation of the actual threat posed by a newly discovered Near Earth Asteroid (NEA), for which impacting orbital…

The knowledge of the orbit or the ephemeris uncertainty of asteroid presents a particular interest for various purposes. These quantities are for instance useful for recovering asteroids, for identifying lost asteroids or for planning…

ESA and NASA maintain asteroid hazard lists that contain all known asteroids with a non zero chance of colliding with the Earth in the future. Some software tools exist that are, either, capable of calculating the impact points of those…