相关论文: Impact Probability Under Aleatory And Epistemic Un…

This paper presents a robust linear method for impact probability estimation of near-Earth asteroids with the Earth. This method is a significantly modified and improved method, which uses a special curvilinear coordinate system associated…

(99942) Apophis is a potentially hazardous asteroid that will closely approach the Earth on April 13, 2029. Although the likelihood of an impact has been ruled out, this close encounter represents a unique opportunity for planetary science…

Asteroid (99942) Apophis' close approach in 2029 will be one of the most significant small-body encounter events in the near future and offers a good opportunity for in situ exploration to determine the asteroid's surface properties and…

An asteroid impact is a low probability event with potentially devastating consequences. The Asteroid Risk Mitigation Optimization and Research (ARMOR) software tool calculates whether a colliding asteroid experiences an airburst or surface…

Asteroid 99942 Apophis will pass near the Earth in April 2029. Expected to miss our planet by a safe margin, that could change if Apophis' path was perturbed by a collision with another asteroid in the interim. Though the statistical chance…

In this work, we investigate the surface thermophysical properties (thermal emissivity, thermal inertia, roughness fraction and geometric albedo) of asteroid (99942) Apophis, using the currently available thermal infrared observations of…

The potentially hazardous asteroid (PHA) (99942) Apophis is one of the most remarkable near-Earth asteroids (NEA) in terms of impact hazard. A good determination of its surface thermal inertia is very important in order to evaluate the…

Asteroids can be eclipsed by other bodies in the Solar System, but no direct observation of an asteroid eclipse has been reported to date. We describe a statistical method to predict an eclipse for an asteroid based on the analysis of the…

Asteroids that could collide with the Earth are listed on the publicly available Near-Earth object (NEO) hazard web sites maintained by the US and European space agencies (NASA and ESA). The impact probability distribution of 69 potentially…

We present an updated set of near-Earth asteroids with a Yarkovsky-related semimajor axis drift detected from the orbital fit to the astrometry. We find 87 reliable detections after filtering for the signal-to-noise ratio of the Yarkovsky…

The asteroid belt is a unique source of information on some of the most important questions facing solar system science. These questions include the sizes, numbers, types and orbital distributions of the planetesimals that formed the…

The majority of existing probabilistic model checking case studies are based on well understood theoretical models and distributions. However, real-life probabilistic systems usually involve distribution parameters whose values are obtained…

Potentially impacting asteroids were analysed for their impact risk on the Earth. To this end, the Asteroid Risk Mitigation Optimization and Research (ARMOR) tool is currently being developed. The tool's modules are described and their…

Orbit-determination programs find the orbit solution that best fits a set of observations by minimizing the RMS of the residuals of the fit. For near-Earth asteroids, the uncertainty of the orbit solution may be compatible with trajectories…

On April 13, 2029, near-Earth asteroid (NEA) (99942) Apophis will pass at a distance of 6 Earth radii from Earth. This event will provide researchers with a unique opportunity to study the effects of tidal forces experienced by an asteroid…

Hazardous asteroid has been one of the concerns for humankind as fallen asteroid on earth could cost a huge impact on the society.Monitoring these objects could help predict future impact events, but such efforts are hindered by the large…

We seek evidence of the Yarkovsky effect among Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) by measuring the Yarkovsky-related orbital drift from the orbital fit. To prevent the occurrence of unreliable detections we employ a high precision dynamical model,…

This paper develops a measure-theoretic framework establishing when and how a possibilistic representation of incomplete knowledge contracts into a probabilistic representation of intrinsic stochastic variability. Epistemic uncertainty is…

On April 13, 2029, the asteroid Apophis will pass near Earth at a geocentric distance of about 38,000 km. Numerical models have suggested that the post-encounter spin state will critically depend on the orientation of Apophis during the…

Epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is commonly addressed through a logic-tree framework that combines weighted alternative models to characterize the range of plausible hazard outcomes. Implicit in this…