相关论文: Impact Probability Under Aleatory And Epistemic Un…

The discovery of 2024 YR4 presented the planetary defense community with the most significant impact threat in almost two decades, reaching level 3 on the Torino scale. The community, now mature and well-organized, responded with a global…

This paper attempts to provide an estimation of the prevalence of hostile extraterrestrial civilizations through an extrapolation of the probability that we, as the human civilization, would attack or invade an inhabited exoplanet once we…

This work presents a new parametrisation suitable for parameter-space studies of heliocentric Earth-impacting orbits. Originally motivated by the issue of potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) and the mitigation of such a risk, we show…

We have searched Microvariability and Oscillations of STars (MOST) satellite photometry obtained in 2004, 2005, and 2007 of the solar-type star HD 209458 for Trojan asteroid swarms dynamically coupled with the system's transiting "hot…

This contribution derives from a rather extensive study on the foundations of probability. We start by discussing critically the two main models of the random event in Probability Theroy and cast light over a number of incongruities. We…

We develop an averaging approach to robust risk measurement under payoff uncertainty. Instead of taking a worst-case value over an uncertainty neighborhood, we weight nearby payoffs more heavily under a chosen metric and average the…

Photometric observations of asteroids show that some of them are in non-principal axis rotation state (free precession), called tumbling. Collisions between asteroids have been proposed as a possible asteroid rotation excitation mechanism.…

We study the convex-hull problem in a probabilistic setting, motivated by the need to handle data uncertainty inherent in many applications, including sensor databases, location-based services and computer vision. In our framework, the…

When a measurement of a physical quantity is reported, the total uncertainty is usually decomposed into statistical and systematic uncertainties. This decomposition is not only useful to understand the contributions to the total…

Bayesian inference is often utilized for uncertainty quantification tasks. A recent analysis by Xu and Raginsky 2022 rigorously decomposed the predictive uncertainty in Bayesian inference into two uncertainties, called aleatoric and…

Following the break up of a parent body, the Yarkovsky effect causes asteroid family members to spread in orbital semimajor axis with a rate often inversely proportional to their diameter. This size dependent semimajor axis drift causes…

Let $X$, $Y$ be two correlated discrete random variables. We consider an estimation of $X$ from encoded data $\varphi(Y)$ of $Y$ by some encoder function $\varphi(Y)$. We derive an inequality describing a relation of the correct probability…

We present shape models and volume estimates of twenty asteroids based on relative photometry and adaptive optics images. We discuss error estimation and the effects of myopic deconvolution on shape solutions. For further analysis of the…

We have identified and quantified semi-major axis drifts in Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) by performing orbital fits to optical and radar astrometry of all numbered NEAs. We focus on a subset of 54 NEAs that exhibit some of the most reliable…

A prophet inequality states, for some $\alpha\in[0,1]$, that the expected value achievable by a gambler who sequentially observes random variables $X_1,\dots,X_n$ and selects one of them is at least an $\alpha$ fraction of the maximum value…

While almost all potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) with a size larger than one kilometre have been discovered, it is well-known that the vast majority of the smaller ones are in fact yet to be found. There is therefore an excellent…

We used Bayesian methods to compare the predictions of probabilistic risk assessment -- the theoretical tool used by the nuclear industry to predict the frequency of nuclear accidents -- with empirical data. The existing record of accidents…

Given a universe of discourse X-a domain of possible outcomes-an experiment may consist of selecting one of its elements, subject to the operation of chance, or of observing the elements, subject to imprecision. A priori uncertainty about…

Frequency-magnitude distributions, and their associated uncertainties, are of key importance in statistical seismology. When fitting these distributions, the assumption of Gaussian residuals is invalid since event numbers are both discrete…

In our paper published earlier we discussed forecasts of earthquake focal mechanism and ways to test the forecast efficiency. Several verification methods were proposed, but they were based on ad-hoc, empirical assumptions, thus their…