相关论文: Identification and control of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic …

The aim of this study is to propose a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model that describes the behaviour of symptomatic, asymptomatic and hospitalized patients of COVID-19 epidemic, including the effect of demographic…

We give some numerical observations on the total number of infected by the SARS-CoV-2 in Italy. The analysis is based on a tanh formula involving two parameters. A polynomial correlation between the parameters gives an upper bound for the…

We propose and study a compartmental model for epidemiology with human behavioral effects. Specifically, our model incorporates governmental prevention measures aimed at lowering the disease infection rate, but we split the population into…

What role do asymptomatically infected individuals play in the transmission dynamics? There are many diseases, such as norovirus and influenza, where some infected hosts show symptoms of the disease while others are asymptomatically…

The growing literature on the propagation of COVID-19 relies on various dynamic SIR-type models (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) which yield model-dependent results. For transparency and ease of comparing the results, we introduce a common…

We propose two stochastic models for the Coronavirus pandemic. The statistical properties of the models, in particular the correlation functions and the probability density function, have duly been computed. Our models, which generalises a…

A pipeline to evaluate the evolution of viral dynamics based on a new model-driven approach has been developed in the present study. The proposed methods exploit real data and the multiscale structure of the infection dynamics to provide…

We consider the SIR model and study the first time the number of infected individuals begins to decrease and the first time this population is below a given threshold. We interpret these times as functions of the initial susceptible and…

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infectivity is a major concern in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prevention and economic reopening. However, rigorous determination of SARS-COV-2 infectivity is essentially…

In diagnostic testing, establishing an indeterminate class is an effective way to identify samples that cannot be accurately classified. However, such approaches also make testing less efficient and must be balanced against overall assay…

Currently, due to the COVID-19 pandemic the public life in most European countries stopped almost completely due to measures against the spread of the virus. Efforts to limit the number of new infections are threatened by the advent of new…

Globally the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has infected more than 59 million people and killed more than 1.39 million. Designing and monitoring interventions to slow and stop the spread of the virus require knowledge of how many people have been…

In this paper, we provide insights on how much testing and social distancing is required to control COVID-19. To this end, we develop a compartmental model that accounts for key aspects of the disease: 1) incubation time, 2) age-dependent…

Social distancing has been enacted in order to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Like many authors, we adopt the classic epidemic SIR model, where the infection rate is the control variable. Its differential flatness property yields ele…

A prominent report claimed substantial support for two introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into humans using a calculation that combined phylodynamic inferences and epidemic models. Inspection of the calculation identifies an imbalance in the…

Estimation of prevalence of undocumented SARS-CoV-2 infections is critical for understanding the overall impact of the Covid-19 disease. In fact, unveiling uncounted cases has fundamental implications for public policy interventions…

The COVID-19 epidemic has been spreading around the world for nearly three years, and asymptomatic infections have exacerbated the spread of the epidemic. To evaluate the role of asymptomatic infections in the spread of the epidemic, we…

In the present article we introduce an epidemiological model for the investigation of the spread of epidemics caused by viruses. The model is applied specifically to COVID-19, the disease caused by the SARS-Cov-2 virus (aka "novel…

The aim of this paper is to provide a rigorous mathematical analysis of an optimal control problem with SIR dynamics. The main feature of our study is the presence of state constraints (related to intensive care units ICU capacity) and…

Background: The ongoing COVID-19 epidemic dilated rapidly throughout India. To end the global COVID-19 pandemic major behavioral, social distancing, contact tracing, and state interventions has been undertaken to reduce the outbreak and…