相关论文: Scientific comment on "Tail risk of contagious dis…

The size that an epidemic can reach, measured in terms of the number of fatalities, is an extremely relevant quantity. It has been recently claimed [Cirillo & Taleb, Nature Physics 2020] that the size distribution of major epidemics in…

The total number of fatalities of an epidemic outbreak is a dramatic but extremely informative quantity. Knowledge of the statistics of this quantity allows the calculation of the mean total number of fatalities conditioned to the fact that…

Applying a modification of Extreme value Theory (thanks to a dual distribution technique by the authors on data over the past 2,500 years, we show that pandemics are extremely fat-tailed in terms of fatalities, with a marked potentially…

Power-law distribution is one of the most important laws known in nature. Such a special universal behavior is known to occur in very few physical systems. In this Letter, we analyzed the mortality distribution of the Covid-19 pandemic…

This paper conducts a systematic statistical analysis of the characteristics of the geographical empirical distributions for the numbers of both cumulative and daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths at county, city, and state levels over…

This work systematically conducts a data analysis based on the numbers of both cumulative and daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in a time span through April 2020 to June 2022 for over 200 countries around the world. Such research…

Just like the degrees of human and animal interaction networks, the distribution of the times between interactions is known to often be right-skewed and fat-tailed. Both these distributions affect epidemic dynamics strongly, but, as we show…

We discuss common errors and fallacies when using naive "evidence based" empiricism and point forecasts for fat-tailed variables, as well as the insufficiency of using naive first-order scientific methods for tail risk management. We use…

We study the statistics of human deaths from wars, conflicts, similar man-made conflicts as well as natural disasters. The probability distribution of number of people killed in natural disasters as well as man made situations show power…

The paper focuses on econometrically justified robust analysis of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on financial markets in different countries across the World. It provides the results of robust estimation and inference on predictive…

Statistical distributions with heavy tails are ubiquitous in natural and social phenomena. Since the entries in heavy tail have disproportional significance, the knowledge of its exact shape is very important. Citations of scientific papers…

It was observed that the number of cases and deaths for infectious diseases were associated with heavy-tailed power law distributions such as the Pareto distribution. While Pareto distribution was widely used to model the cases and deaths…

We examine statistical pictures of violent conflicts over the last 2000 years, finding techniques for dealing with incompleteness and unreliability of historical data. We introduce a novel approach to apply extreme value theory to…

US public health authorities claim imposing quarantines on healthcare workers returning from West Africa is incorrect according to science. Their positions rely upon a set of studies and experience about outbreaks and transmission…

This note presents an operational measure of fat-tailedness for univariate probability distributions, in $[0,1]$ where 0 is maximally thin-tailed (Gaussian) and 1 is maximally fat-tailed. Among others,1) it helps assess the sample size…

In order to account for large variance and fat tail of damage by natural disaster, we study a simple model by combining distributions of disaster and population/property with their spatial correlation. We assume fat-tailed or power-law…

The tail of the distribution of a sum of a random number of independent and identically distributed nonnegative random variables depends on the tails of the number of terms and of the terms themselves. This situation is of interest in the…

(The third edition corrects minor typos and adds 3 chapters synthesized from published papers plus an appendix on maximum entropy distributions.) The monograph investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat…

Epidemics unfold by means of a spreading process from each infected individual to a random number of secondary cases. It has been claimed that the so-called superspreading events in COVID-19 are governed by a power-law tailed distribution…

The mutual fund industry manages about a quarter of the assets in the U.S. stock market and thus plays an important role in the U.S. economy. The question of how much control is concentrated in the hands of the largest players is best…