相关论文: Long-range correlations in Covid-19 growth

The changing nature of the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of comprehensively considering its impacts and considering changes over time. Most COVID-19 related research addresses narrowly focused research questions and is…

This paper introduces a mathematical framework for determining second surge behavior of COVID-19 cases in the United States. Within this framework, a flexible algorithmic approach selects a set of turning points for each state, computes…

In this article, we deal with COVID-19 data to study the trend of the epidemic at the global situation. Choosing the mortality rate as an appropriate metric which measures the relative relation between the cumulative confirmed cases and…

The fractal scaling properties of the heartbeat time series are studied in a controlled ergometric regime using the Hurst rescaled range R/S analysis. The long-time "memory effect" quantified by the value of the Hurst exponent $H>0.5$ is…

The aim of the paper is to describe a model of the development of the Covid-19 contamination of the population of a country or a region. For this purpose a special branching process with two types of individuals is considered. This model is…

Based on recent studies, some COVID-19 symptoms can persist for months after infection, leading to what is termed long COVID. Factors such as vaccination timing, patient characteristics, and symptoms during the acute phase of infection may…

We study the distribution $P(x;\alpha,L)$ of the relative trend $x$ in long-term correlated records of length $L$ that are characterized by a Hurst-exponent $\alpha$ between 0.5 and 1.5 obtained by DFA2. The relative trend $x$ is the ratio…

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic policy uncertainty in the US and the UK. The impact of the increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths in the country, and the increase in the number of…

In this work, we propose a deep learning approach to forecasting state-level COVID-19 trends of weekly cumulative death in the United States (US) and incident cases in Germany. This approach includes a transformer model, an ensemble method,…

In this short note we model the region-wise trends of the evolution to COVID-19 infections using a stochastic SIR model. The SIR dynamics are expressed using \textit{It\^o-stochastic differential equations}. We first derive the parameters…

The aim of the paper is to describe two models of Covid-19 infection dynamics. For this purpose a special class of branching processes with two types of individuals is considered. These models are intended to use only the observed daily…

Comparing how different populations have suffered under COVID-19 is a core part of ongoing investigations into how public policy and social inequalities influence the number of and severity of COVID-19 cases. But COVID-19 incidence can vary…

The study of human dynamics has attracted much interest from many fields recently. In this paper, the fractal characteristic of human behaviors is investigated from the perspective of time series constructed with the amount of library…

COVID-19 is a global health crisis that has had unprecedented, widespread impact on households across the United States and has been declared a global pandemic on March 11, 2020 by World Health Organization (WHO) [1]. According to Centers…

The Hurst coefficient $H$ of a stochastic fractal signal is estimated using the function $\sigma_{MA}^2=\frac{1}{N_{max}-n}\sum_{i=n}^{N_{max}} [y(i)-\widetilde{y}_n(i)]^2$, where $\widetilde{y}_n(i)$ is defined as $1/n \sum_{k=0}^{n-1}…

Attributes which are infrequently expressed in a population can require weeks or months of counting to reach statistical significance. But replacement in a stable population increases long-term counts to a degree determined by the…

The Hurst exponent is the simplest numerical summary of self-similar long-range dependent stochastic processes. We consider the estimation of Hurst exponent in long-range dependent curve time series. Our estimation method begins by…

The discovery of SARS-CoV-2, the responsible virus for the Covid-19 epidemic, has sparked a global health concern with many countries affected. Developing models that can interpret the epidemic and give common trend parameters are useful…

In this work, we developed a deep learning model-based approach to forecast the spreading trend of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States. We implemented the designed model using the United States to confirm cases and state demographic data and…

Time series that display periodicity can be described with a Fourier expansion. In a similar vein, a recently developed formalism enables description of growth patterns with the optimal number of parameters (Elitzur et al, 2020). The method…