相关论文: Cluster-based dual evolution for multivariate time…

Breaking a complex bio-social phenomenon (epidemic) into its components, considering the processes that determine its dynamics, formalizing the accepted hypotheses in mathematical equations, selecting appropriate experimental and…

Mathematical models have been used to understand the spread patterns of infectious diseases such as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The transmission component of the models can be modelled in an age-dependent manner via introducing…

In late 2019, COVID-19, a severe respiratory disease, emerged, and since then, the world has been facing a deadly pandemic caused by it. This ongoing pandemic has had a significant effect on different aspects of societies. The uncertainty…

Europe was hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic and Portugal was one of the most affected countries, having suffered three waves in the first twelve months. Approximately between Jan 19th and Feb 5th 2021 Portugal was the country in the world…

A simple analytical model for modeling the evolution of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic is presented. The model is based on the numerical solution of the widely used Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) populations model for describing…

This note outlines a method for clustering time series based on a statistical model in which volatility shifts at unobserved change-points. The model accommodates some classical stylized features of returns and its relation to GARCH is…

Generalized $k$-means can be incorporated with any similarity or dissimilarity measure for clustering. By choosing the dissimilarity measure as the well known likelihood ratio or $F$-statistic, this work proposes a method based on…

In this work, we study the problem of clustering survival data $-$ a challenging and so far under-explored task. We introduce a novel semi-supervised probabilistic approach to cluster survival data by leveraging recent advances in…

The paper presents classification and analysis of the mathematical models of COVID-19 spread in different groups of populations such as the family, school, office (3-100 people), neighborhood (100-5000 people), city, region (0.5-15 million…

We propose a statistical method for clustering of multivariate longitudinal data into homogeneous groups. This method relies on a time-varying extension on the classical K-means algorithm, where a multivariate vector autoregressive model is…

Analytical descriptions of patterns concerning spread and fatality during an epidemic, covering natural as well as restriction periods, are important for reducing damage. We employ a scaling model to investigate this aspect in the real data…

To forecast the time dynamics of an epidemic, we propose a discrete stochastic model that unifies and generalizes previous approaches to the subject. Viewing a given population of individuals or groups of individuals with given health state…

In this study, we propose a clustering-based approach on time-series data to capture COVID-19 spread patterns in the early period of the pandemic. We analyze the spread dynamics based on the early and post stages of COVID-19 for different…

To reduce the impact of COVID-19 pandemic most countries have implemented several counter-measures to control the virus spread including school and border closing, shutting down public transport and workplace and restrictions on gathering.…

Modelling and forecasting homogeneous age-specific mortality rates of multiple countries could lead to improvements in long-term forecasting. Data fed into joint models are often grouped according to nominal attributes, such as geographic…

COVID-19 disease has affected almost every country in the world. The large number of infected people and the different mortality rates between countries has given rise to many hypotheses about the key points that make the virus so lethal in…

A number of models in mathematical epidemiology have been developed to account for control measures such as vaccination or quarantine. However, COVID-19 has brought unprecedented social distancing measures, with a challenge on how to…

Although traditional literature on mortality modeling has focused on single countries in isolation, recent contributions have progressively moved toward joint models for multiple countries. Besides favoring borrowing of information to…

Forecasting the effect of COVID-19 is essential to design policies that may prepare us to handle the pandemic. Many methods have already been proposed, particularly, to forecast reported cases and deaths at country-level and state-level.…

While COVID-19 is rapidly propagating around the globe, the need for providing real-time forecasts of the epidemics pushes fits of dynamical and statistical models to available data beyond their capabilities. Here we focus on statistical…