相关论文: Exactly computing the tail of the Poisson-Binomial…

The well-known "Janson's inequality" gives Poisson-like upper bounds for the lower tail probability \Pr(X \le (1-\eps)\E X) when X is the sum of dependent indicator random variables of a special form. We show that, for large deviations,…

This paper introduces the multivariate tail-inflated normal (MTIN) distribution, an elliptical heavy-tails generalization of the multivariate normal (MN). The MTIN belongs to the family of MN scale mixtures by choosing a convenient…

A Poisson Binomial distribution over $n$ variables is the distribution of the sum of $n$ independent Bernoullis. We provide a sample near-optimal algorithm for testing whether a distribution $P$ supported on $\{0,...,n\}$ to which we have…

We study large deviation properties of probability distributions with either a compact support or a fat tail by comparing them with q-deformed exponential distributions. Our main result is a large deviation property for probability…

We consider real-valued random variables R satisfying the distributional equation R \eqdist \sum_{k=1}^{N}T_k R_k + Q, where R_1,R_2,... are iid copies of R and independent of T=(Q, (T_k)_{k \ge 1}). N is the number of nonzero weights T_k…

This paper develops asymptotic approximations of $P(\int_Te^{f(t)}\,dt>b)$ as $b\rightarrow\infty$ for a homogeneous smooth Gaussian random field, $f$, living on a compact $d$-dimensional Jordan measurable set $T$. The integral of an…

We present a flexible, deterministic numerical method for computing left-tail rare events of sums of non-negative, independent random variables. The method is based on iterative numerical integration of linear convolutions by means of…

The problem of estimating the coefficient of bivariate tail dependence is considered here from the robustness point of view; it combines two apparently contradictory theories of robust statistics and extreme value statistics. The usual…

We study the adapted solution, numerical methods, and related convergence analysis for a unified backward stochastic partial differential equation (B-SPDE). The equation is vector-valued, whose drift and diffusion coefficients may involve…

High-probability analysis of stochastic first-order optimization methods under mild assumptions on the noise has been gaining a lot of attention in recent years. Typically, gradient clipping is one of the key algorithmic ingredients to…

Characteristic functions of several popular classes of distributions and processes admit analytic continuation into unions of strips and open coni around $\mathbb{R}\subset \mathbb{C}$. The Fourier transform techniques reduces calculation…

We study the almost surely finite random variable $S$ defined by the distributional fixed-point equation \[ S \stackrel{d}{=} 1 + \max\{US', (1-U)S''\}, \qquad U \sim \mathrm{Unif}(0,1), \] where $S'$ and $S''$ are independent copies of…

We characterize the complex, heavy-tailed probability distribution functions (pdf) describing the response and its local extrema for structural systems subjected to random forcing that includes extreme events. Our approach is based on the…

In 2017-2020 Jordanova and co-authors investigate probabilities for p-outside values and determine them in many particular cases. They show that these probabilities are closely related to the concept for heavy tails. Tukey's boxplots are…

We derive in this short report the exact exponential decreasing tail of distribution for naturel normed sums of independent centered random variables (r.v.), applying the theory of Grand Lebesgue Spaces (GLS). We consider also some…

In this paper, we obtain optimal uniform lower tail estimates for the probability distribution of the properly scaled length of the longest up/right path of the last passage site percolation model considered by Johansson in [12]. The…

In this paper we present various new inequalities for tail proabilities for distributions that are elements of the most improtant exponential families. These families include the Poisson distributions, the Gamma distributions, the binomial…

We offer a survey of recent results on covariance estimation for heavy-tailed distributions. By unifying ideas scattered in the literature, we propose user-friendly methods that facilitate practical implementation. Specifically, we…

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating an extreme quantile of a Weibull tail-distribution. The new extreme quantile estimator has a reduced bias compared to the more classical ones proposed in the literature. It is based on an…

This article introduces a non-parametric information-theoretic approach to inference about the tail of a continuous or a discrete distribution. Leveraging a new concept named tail profile -- a set of information-theoretic quantities…