相关论文: Exactly computing the tail of the Poisson-Binomial…
We propose an analytical approach to the computation of tail probabilities of compound distributions whose individual components have heavy tails. Our approach is based on the contour integration method, and gives rise to a representation…
We give an algorithm for properly learning Poisson binomial distributions. A Poisson binomial distribution (PBD) of order $n$ is the discrete probability distribution of the sum of $n$ mutually independent Bernoulli random variables. Given…
The extremal tail probabilities of moving sums in a marked Poisson random field is examined here. These sums are computed by adding up the weighted occurrences of events lying within a scanning set of fixed shape and size. Change of measure…
The Poisson-binomial distribution is useful in many applied problems in engineering, actuarial science, and data mining. The Poisson-binomial distribution models the distribution of the sum of independent but not identically distributed…
In this paper we consider the problem of computing tail probabilities of the distribution of a random sum of positive random variables. We assume that the individual variables follow a reproducible natural exponential family (NEF)…
The solution of $ X=AX+1 $ is analyzed for a discrete variable $ A $ with $ \mathbb{P}\left[A=0\right]>0 $. Accordingly, a fast algorithm is presented to calculate the obtained heavy tail density. To exemplify, the compound product…
In a number of applications, particularly in financial and actuarial mathematics, it is of interest to characterize the tail distribution of a random variable $V$ satisfying the distributional equation $V\stackrel{\mathcal{D}}{=}f(V)$,…
In Bayesian theory, calculating a posterior probability distribution is highly important but usually difficult. Therefore, some methods have been put forward to deal with such problem, among which, the most popular one is the asymptotic…
Chernoff bounds are a powerful application of the Markov inequality to produce strong bounds on the tails of probability distributions. They are often used to bound the tail probabilities of sums of Poisson trials, or in regression to…
The one-point distribution of the height for the continuum Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) equation is determined numerically using the mapping to the directed polymer in a random potential at high temperature. Using an importance sampling…
We study the accuracy of a scaled Poisson approximation to the weighted sum of independent Poisson random variables, focusing on in particular the relative error of the tail distribution. A bound on the relative approximation error is…
We study tail probabilities via some Gaussian approximations. Our results make refinements to large deviation theory. The proof builds on classical results by Bahadur and Rao. Binomial distributions and their tail probabilities are…
Stable distributions are of fundamental importance in probability theory, yet their absolute continuity makes them unsuitable for modeling count data. A discrete analog of strict stability has been previously proposed by replacing scaling…
Exponential random graph models are an important tool in the statistical analysis of data. However, Bayesian parameter estimation for these models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior distribution typically involves…
In this paper, we study the asymptotic behaviour of the product tail probability $ \mathbb{P}(\xi_1\cdots\xi_N \geqslant n), $ where $\{\xi_1,\ldots,\xi_N\}$ is a finite collection of independent Poisson random variables with positive…
We develop an efficient simulation algorithm for computing the tail probabilities of the infinite series $S = \sum_{n \geq 1} a_n X_n$ when random variables $X_n$ are heavy-tailed. As $S$ is the sum of infinitely many random variables, any…
Consider Bernoulli(1/2) percolation on $\Z^d$, and define a perfect matching between open and closed vertices in a way that is a deterministic equivariant function of the configuration. We want to find such matching rules that make the…
As an application of Stein's method for Poisson approximation, we prove rates of convergence for the tail probabilities of two scan statistics that have been suggested for detecting local signals in sequences of independent random variables…
By using a probabilistic technique based on the exponential change of measure we find a precise tail asymptotic behavior of some perpetuities with distributions close to the Dickman distribution.
In a Cox model, the partial likelihood, as the product of a series of conditional probabilities, is used to estimate the regression coefficients. In practice, those conditional probabilities are approximated by risk score ratios based on a…