相关论文: Moments of Maximum: Segment of AR(1)

Let $X_{t}$ denote a stationary first-order autoregressive process. Consider $n$ contiguous observations (in time $t$) of the series (e.g., $X_{1}, ..., X_{n}$). Let its mean be zero and its lag-one serial correlation be $\rho$, which…

Given a stationary first-order autoregressive process X_t (with lag-one correlation rho satisfying |rho|<1), we examine the Central Limit Theorem for (1/n)*ln |X_1...X_n| and compute variances to high precision. Given a nonstationary…

We give the distribution of $M_n$, the maximum of a sequence of $n$ observations from a moving average of order 1. Solutions are first given in terms of repeated integrals and then for the case where the underlying independent random…

We give the distribution function of $M_n$, the maximum of a sequence of $n$ observations from an autoregressive process of order 2. Solutions are first given in terms of repeated integrals and then for the case, where the underlying random…

Let $G = (V,E)$ be a connected directed graph on $n$ vertices. Assign values from the set $\{1,2,\dots,n\}$ to the vertices of $G$ and update the values according to the following rule: uniformly at random choose a vertex and update its…

We consider a time-varying first-order autoregressive model with irregular innovations, where we assume that the coefficient function is H\"{o}lder continuous. To estimate this function, we use a quasi-maximum likelihood based approach. A…

We give the distribution of $M_n$, the maximum of a sequence of $n$ observations from a moving average of order 1. Solutions are first given in terms of repeated integrals and then for the case where the underlying independent random…

In this paper we employ methods from Statistical Mechanics to model temporal correlations in time series. We put forward a methodology based on the Maximum Entropy principle to generate ensembles of time series constrained to preserve part…

We derive a functional limit theorem for the partial maxima process based on a long memory stationary $\alpha$-stable process. The length of memory in the stable process is parameterized by a certain ergodic-theoretical parameter in an…

Let $\{X_n;n\ge 1\}$ be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables on a sub-linear expectation space $(\Omega,\mathscr{H},\widehat{\mathbb E})$, $S_n=X_1+\ldots+X_n$. We consider the moments of $\max_{n\ge…

Using the martingale approach we find sufficient conditions for exponential boundedness of first passage times over a level for ergodic first order autoregressive sequences (AR(1)). Further, we prove a martingale identity to be used in…

The structure of stationary first order max-autoregressive schemes with max-semi-stable marginals is studied. A connection between semi-selfsimilar extremal processes and this max-autoregressive scheme is discussed resulting in their…

Many nonlinear time series models have been proposed in the last decades. Among them, the models with regime switchings provide a class of versatile and interpretable models which have received a particular attention in the literature. In…

This paper deals with a general class of observation-driven time series models with a special focus on time series of counts. We provide conditions under which there exist strict-sense stationary and ergodic versions of such processes. The…

Many natural phenomena can be described by power-laws. A closer look at various experimental data reveals more or less significant deviations from a 1/f spectrum. We exemplify such cases with phenomena offered by molecular biology, cell…

We study the problem of stationarity and ergodicity for autoregressive multinomial logistic time series models which possibly include a latent process and are defined by a GARCH-type recursive equation. We improve considerably upon the…

For integers $n\geq r$, we treat the $r$th largest of a sample of size $n$ as an $\mathbb{R}^\infty$-valued stochastic process in $r$ which we denote $\mathbf{M}^{(r)}$. We show that the sequence regarded in this way satisfies the Markov…

We compute the connected two-time correlator of the maximum $M_N(t)$ of $N$ independent Gaussian stochastic processes (GSP) characterised by a common correlation coefficient $\rho$ that depends on the two times $t_1$ and $t_2$. We show…

Frankl and F\"uredi conjectured in 1989 that the maximum Lagrangian of all $r$-uniform hypergraphs of fixed size $m$ is realised by the initial segment of the colexicographic order. In particular, in the principal case $m=\binom{t}{r}$…

Let $\{X_n\}$ be a stationary and ergodic time series taking values from a finite or countably infinite set ${\cal X}$. Assume that the distribution of the process is otherwise unknown. We propose a sequence of stopping times $\lambda_n$…