相关论文: Implementation of Frequency-Severity Association i…
Bayesian model updating facilitates the calibration of analytical models based on observations and the quantification of uncertainties in model parameters such as stiffness and mass. This process significantly enhances damage assessment and…
We investigate the estimation of subgroup treatment effects with observational data. Existing propensity score matching and weighting methods are mostly developed for estimating overall treatment effect. Although the true propensity score…
Continuous-time random disturbances from the renewable generation pose a significant impact on power system dynamic behavior. In evaluating this impact, the disturbances must be considered as continuous-time random processes instead of…
Modeling the ratio of two dependent components as a function of covariates is a frequently pursued objective in observational research. Despite the high relevance of this topic in medical studies, where biomarker ratios are often used as…
We consider the estimation of large covariance and precision matrices from high-dimensional sub-Gaussian or heavier-tailed observations with slowly decaying temporal dependence. The temporal dependence is allowed to be long-range so with…
One of the main goals in non-life insurance is to estimate the claims reserve distribution. A generalized time series model, that allows for modeling the conditional mean and variance of the claim amounts, is proposed for the claims…
A key function of battery management systems (BMS) in e-mobility applications is estimating the battery state of health (SoH) with high accuracy. This is typically achieved in commercial BMS using model-based methods. There has been…
We extend the model used in Gardiner et al. (2002) and Polverejan et al. (2003) through deriving an explicit expression for the joint probability density function of hospital charge and length of stay (LOS) under a general class of…
We propose a Multi-vAlue Rule Set (MRS) model for in-hospital predicting patient mortality. Compared to rule sets built from single-valued rules, MRS adopts a more generalized form of association rules that allows multiple values in a…
In this paper, we introduce a method to optimally estimate time-varying frequency bias. Current industry practice is to assume that frequency bias is changing only on annual basis. We suggest that this improved time-dependent bias estimate…
Random shifting typically appears in credibility models whereas random scaling is often encountered in stochastic models for claim sizes reflecting the time-value property of money. In this article we discuss some aspects of random shifting…
This work investigates the computational burden of pricing binary options in rare event regimes and introduces an adaptation of the adaptive multilevel splitting (AMS) method for financial derivatives. Standard Monte Carlo becomes…
We propose Bayesian model averaging (BMA) as a method for postprocessing the results of model-based clustering. Given a number of competing models, appropriate model summaries are averaged, using the posterior model probabilities, instead…
We study investment and insurance demand decisions for an agent in a theoretical continuous-time expected utility maximization model that combines risky assets with an (exogenous) insurable background risk. This risk takes the form of a…
Community rating is a policy that mandates uniform premium regardless of the risk factors. In this paper, our focus narrows to the single contract interpretation wherein we establish a theoretical framework for community rating using…
Randomised field experiments, such as A/B testing, have long been the gold standard for evaluating the value that new software brings to customers. However, running randomised field experiments is not always desired, possible or even…
An importance sampling approach for sampling copula models is introduced. We propose two algorithms that improve Monte Carlo estimators when the functional of interest depends mainly on the behaviour of the underlying random vector when at…
Credit Valuation Adjustment is a balance sheet item which is nowadays subject to active risk management by specialized traders. However, one of the most important risk factors, which is the vector of default intensities of the counterparty,…
Channel and frequency offset estimation is a classic topic with a large body of prior work using mainly maximum likelihood (ML) approach together with Cram\'er-Rao Lower bounds (CRLB) analysis. We provide the maximum a posteriori (MAP)…
Statistically simulated time series of wave parameters are required for many coastal and offshore engineering applications, often at the resolution of approximately one hour. Various studies have relied on autoregressive moving-average…