相关论文: A Statistical Exploration of Duckworth-Lewis Metho…

Twenty20 cricket, sometimes written Twenty-20, and often abbreviated to T20, is a short form of cricket. In a Twenty20 game the two teams of 11 players have a single innings each, which is restricted to a maximum of 20 overs. This version…

The Bradley-Terry model has previously been used in both Bayesian and frequentist interpretations to evaluate the strengths of sports teams based on win-loss game results. It has also been extended to handle additional possible results such…

Can one understand the statistics of wins and losses of baseball teams? Are their consecutive-game winning and losing streaks self-reinforcing or can they be described statistically? We apply the Bradley-Terry model, which incorporates the…

In this study, we examine a Bayesian approach to analyze extreme daily rainfall amounts and forecast return-levels. Estimating the probability of occurrence and quantiles of future extreme events is important in many applications, including…

Interleaving is an online evaluation approach for information retrieval systems that compares the effectiveness of ranking functions in interpreting the users' implicit feedback. Previous work such as Hofmann et al (2011) has evaluated the…

Australian Rules Football is a field invasion game where two teams attempt to score the highest points to win. Complex machine learning algorithms have been developed to predict match outcomes post-game, but their lack of interpretability…

Efficient modeling of uncertain information in real world is still an open issue. Dempster-Shafer evidence theory is one of the most commonly used methods. However, the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory has the assumption that the hypothesis…

Frequently in sporting competitions it is desirable to compare teams based on records of varying schedule strength. Methods have been developed for sports where the result outcomes are win, draw, or loss. In this paper those ideas are…

Using Bayesian decision theory, we modify the perfect-information, differential game-based guidance law (DGL1) to address the inevitable estimation error occurring when driving this guidance law with a separately-designed state estimator.…

In limited overs cricket, the team batting first posts a target score for the team batting second to achieve in order to win the match. The team batting second is constrained by decreasing resources in terms of number of balls left and…

The approaches routinely used to model the outcomes of football matches are characterised by strong assumptions about the dependence between the number of goals scored by the two competing teams and their marginal distribution. In this…

Betting games provide a natural setting to capture how information yields strategic advantage. The Kelly criterion for betting, long a cornerstone of portfolio theory and information theory, admits an interpretation in the limit of…

This article presents a Bayesian implementation of a cumulative probit model to forecast the outcomes of the UEFA Champions League matches. The argument of the normal CDF involves a cut-off point, a home vs away playing effect and the…

In the sport of cricket, player batting ability is traditionally measured using the batting average. However, the batting average fails to measure both short-term changes in ability that occur during an innings, and long-term changes that…

In the sport of cricket, variations in a player's batting ability can usually be measured on one of two scales. Short-term changes in ability that are observed during a single innings, and long-term changes that are witnessed between…

We investigate the number of survivors in the Leader Green Election (LGE) algorithm introduced by P. Jacquet, D. Milioris and P. Muhlethaler in 2013. Our method is based on the Rice method and gives quite precise formulas. We derive upper…

Strategy iteration is a technique frequently used for two-player games in order to determine the winner or compute payoffs, but to the best of our knowledge no general framework for strategy iteration has been considered. Inspired by…

The Bradley-Terry model assigns probabilities for the outcome of paired comparison experiments based on strength parameters associated with the objects being compared. We consider different proposed choices of prior parameter distributions…

We consider the problem of aggregating pairwise comparisons to obtain a consensus ranking order over a collection of objects. We use the popular Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model which allows us to probabilistically describe pairwise…

Cricket, especially the Twenty20 format, has maximum uncertainty, where a single over can completely change the momentum of the game. With millions of people following the Indian Premier League (IPL), developing a model for predicting the…