相关论文: A Statistical Exploration of Duckworth-Lewis Metho…

Many modern data analysis problems involve inferences from streaming data. However, streaming data is not easily amenable to the standard probabilistic modeling approaches, which assume that we condition on finite data. We develop…

We describe and develop a close relationship between two problems that have customarily been regarded as distinct: that of maximizing entropy, and that of minimizing worst-case expected loss. Using a formulation grounded in the equilibrium…

This paper studies posterior concentration behavior of the base probability measure of a Dirichlet measure, given observations associated with the sampled Dirichlet processes, as the number of observations tends to infinity. The base…

We study the performance of a best reply algorithm for online resource allocation problems with a diseconomy of scale. In an online resource allocation problem, we are given a set of resources and a set of requests that arrive in an online…

The l1-regularization is very popular in high dimensional statistics -- it changes a combinatorial problem of choosing which subset of the parameter are zero, into a simple continuous optimization. Using a continuous prior concentrated near…

Probabilistic record linkage (PRL) is the process of determining which records in two databases correspond to the same underlying entity in the absence of a unique identifier. Bayesian solutions to this problem provide a powerful mechanism…

Accurate short range weather forecasting has significant implications for various sectors. Machine learning based approaches, e.g., deep learning, have gained popularity in this domain where the existing numerical weather prediction (NWP)…

We consider the problem of online allocation (matching, budgeted allocations, and assortments) of reusable resources where an adversarial sequence of resource requests is revealed over time and any allocated resource is used/rented for a…

Designing efficient algorithms for combinatorial optimization appears ubiquitously in various scientific fields. Recently, deep reinforcement learning (DRL) frameworks have gained considerable attention as a new approach: they can automate…

The aim of this paper is to study and develop Bayesian models for the analysis of volleyball match outcomes as recorded by the set-difference. Due to the peculiarity of the outcome variable (set-difference) which takes discrete values from…

This paper deals with the estimation of the unknown distribution of hidden random variables from the observation of pairwise comparisons between these variables. This problem is inspired by recent developments on Bradley-Terry models in…

This paper proposes a careful separation between an entity's epistemic system and their decision system. Crucially, Bayesian counterfactuals are estimated by the epistemic system; not by the decision system. Based on this remark, I prove…

Offline Reinforcement Learning (RL) learns optimal policies from fixed datasets, training a policy once and deploying it at inference time without further refinement. Inspired by model predictive control (MPC), we introduce an inference…

Inverse medium scattering solvers generally reconstruct a single solution without an associated measure of uncertainty. This is true both for the classical iterative solvers and for the emerging deep learning methods. But ill-posedness and…

This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian…

We present a novel approach to adaptive optimal design of groundwater surveys - a methodology for choosing the location of the next monitoring well. Our dual-weighted approach borrows ideas from Bayesian Optimisation and goal-oriented error…

For multiple emergencies caused by natural disasters, it is crucial to allocate resources equitably to each emergency location, especially when the availability of resources is limited in quantity. This paper has developed a multi-event…

There is a propensity for an extreme value analyses to be conducted as a consequence of the occurrence of a large flooding event. This timing of the analysis introduces bias and poor coverage probabilities into the associated risk…

The computation of two Bayesian predictive distributions which are discrete mixtures of incomplete beta functions is considered. The number of iterations can easily become large for these distributions and thus, the accuracy of the result…

Explaining adaptive behavior is a central problem in artificial intelligence research. Here we formalize adaptive agents as mixture distributions over sequences of inputs and outputs (I/O). Each distribution of the mixture constitutes a…