相关论文: Putin's peaks: Russian election data revisited

In the course of studies of the measure of chaos for the distribution of the prime numbers among the positive integers N arched structures have been found. It is given a brief description of the fine structure of the positive integers…

The 2016 Austrian presidential runoff election has been repealed by the Austrian constitutional court. The results of the counted votes had yielded a victory of Alexander van der Bellen by a margin of 30.863 votes as compared to the votes…

Donald Trump was lagging behind in nearly all opinion polls leading up to the 2016 US presidential election, but he surprisingly won the election. This raises the following important questions: 1) why most opinion polls were not accurate in…

We consider the performance of the foremost academic House of Representatives forecasting models in the 2018 elections. In creating open-source implementations of these models, we outline key underlying assumptions. We find that although…

The U.S. Supreme Court is currently deliberating over whether a proposed mathematical formula should be used to detect unconstitutional partisan gerrymandering. We show that in some cases, this formula will only flag bizarrely shaped…

This paper studies statistics of riffle shuffles by relating them to random word statistics with the use of inverse shuffles. Asymptotic normality of the number of descents and inversions in riffle shuffles with convergence rates of order…

We use a method based on machine learning, big-data analytics, and network theory to process millions of messages posted in Twitter to predict election outcomes. The model has achieved accurate results in the current Argentina primary…

Randomness in scientific estimation is generally assumed to arise from unmeasured or uncontrolled factors. However, when combining subjective probability estimates, heterogeneity stemming from people's cognitive or information diversity is…

This paper uses daily Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data to estimate the causal effect of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, a highly competitive race whose outcome resolved lingering uncertainty on election day, on…

In this article we study asymptotic behavior of the probability that a random monic polynomial with integer coefficients is irreducible over the integers. We consider the cases where the coefficients grow together with the degree of the…

We introduce and study isomorphic distances between ordinal elections (with the same numbers of candidates and voters). The main feature of these distances is that they are invariant to renaming the candidates and voters, and two elections…

Political advertising on digital platforms has grown dramatically in recent years as campaigns embrace new ways of targeting supporters and potential voters. Previous scholarship shows that digital advertising has both positive effects on…

We consider self-averaging sequences in which each term is a weighted average over previous terms. For several sequences of this kind it is known that they do not converge to a limit. These sequences share the property that $n$th term is…

The prime numbers look like a randomly chosen sequence of natural numbers, but there is still no strict theory to determine 'Randomness'. In these years, cryptography has developed a battery of statistical tests for randomness. In this…

We study the group Russian roulette problem, also known as the shooting problem, defined as follows. We have $n$ armed people in a room. At each chime of a clock, everyone shoots a random other person. The persons shot fall dead and the…

Correlated proportions arise in longitudinal (panel) studies. A typical example is the ``opinion swing'' problem: ``Has the proportion of people favoring a politician changed after his recent speech to the nation on TV?''. Since the same…

The increasing cost of electoral campaigns raises the need for effective campaign planning and a precise understanding of the return of such investment. Interestingly, despite the strong impact of elections on our daily lives, how this…

In this paper, we apply genetic algorithms to the field of electoral studies. Forecasting election results is one of the most exciting and demanding tasks in the area of market research, especially due to the fact that decisions have to be…

This is a short survey on existing upper and lower bounds on the probability of the union of a finite number of events using partial information given in terms of the individual or pairwise event probabilities (or their sums). New proofs…

We consider the problem of predicting winners in elections, for the case where we are given complete knowledge about all possible candidates, all possible voters (together with their preferences), but where it is uncertain either which…