相关论文: Putin's peaks: Russian election data revisited

Electoral fraud often manifests itself as statistical anomalies in election results, yet its extent can rarely be reliably confirmed by other evidence. Here we report the complete results of municipal elections in the town of Vlasikha near…

We study two types of probability measures on the set of integer partitions of $n$ with at most $m$ parts. The first one chooses the random partition with a chance related to its largest part only. We then obtain the limiting distributions…

PP(top x%) is the proportion of papers of a unit (e.g. an institution or a group of researchers), which belongs to the x% most frequently cited papers in the corresponding fields and publication years. It has been proposed that x% of papers…

Polls posted on social media have emerged in recent years as an important tool for estimating public opinion, e.g., to gauge public support for business decisions and political candidates in national elections. Here, we examine nearly two…

We investigate the asymptotic behavior of several variants of the scan statistic applied to empirical distributions, which can be applied to detect the presence of an anomalous interval with any length. Of particular interest is Studentized…

We discuss a non-intuitive situation concerning percentages.

Interstellar communication signals have been conjectured to be present, albeit difficult to identify. Experiments conducted since 2018 indicate an anomalous presence of a type of speculated interstellar signal, delta-t delta-f polarized…

Elections, the cornerstone of democratic societies, are usually regarded as unpredictable due to the complex interactions that shape them at different levels. In this work, we show that voter turnouts contain crucial information that can be…

Social media platforms allow users to create polls to gather public opinion on diverse topics. However, we know little about what such polls are used for and how reliable they are, especially in significant contexts like elections. Focusing…

Many recent political events, like the 2016 US Presidential elections or the 2018 Brazilian elections have raised the attention of institutions and of the general public on the role of Internet and social media in influencing the outcome of…

Forecasting elections -- a challenging, high-stakes problem -- is the subject of much uncertainty, subjectivity, and media scrutiny. To shed light on this process, we develop a method for forecasting elections from the perspective of…

The wisdom of the crowd has long become the de facto approach for eliciting information from individuals or experts in order to predict the ground truth. However, classical democratic approaches for aggregating individual \emph{votes} only…

Electoral systems are subject of study for physicist and mathematicians in last years given place to a new area: sociophysics. Based on previous works of the author on the Mexican electoral processes in the new millennium, he found three…

The previous twelve turnout rates of French national elections by municipality show regularities. These regularities do not depend on the national turnout level, nor on the nature of the election. Based on past statistical regularities we…

Social media sites are becoming a key factor in politics. These platforms are easy to manipulate for the purpose of distorting information space to confuse and distract voters. Past works to identify disruptive patterns are mostly focused…

For many, social networks have become the primary source of news, although the correctness of the provided information and its trustworthiness are often unclear. The investigations of the 2016 US presidential elections have brought the…

On February 7, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a two-hour interview with conservative political commentator, Tucker Carlson. This study investigated the impact of the Carlson- Putin interview on the US X audience. We proposed a…

In the past decade we have witnessed the failure of traditional polls in predicting presidential election outcomes across the world. To understand the reasons behind these failures we analyze the raw data of a trusted pollster which failed…

We explain the anomaly of election results between large cities and rural areas in terms of urban scaling in the 1948-2016 US elections and in the 2016 EU referendum of the UK. The scaling curves are all universal and depend on a single…

We consider the problem of inferring the probability distribution associated with a language, given data consisting of an infinite sequence of elements of the languge. We do this under two assumptions on the algorithms concerned: (i) like a…