相关论文: Putin's peaks: Russian election data revisited

This paper is a corrigendum and addendum to the previously published article: 'How Populist are Parties? Measuring Degrees of Populism in Party Manifestos Using Supervised Machine Learning' (Political Analysis, 1-17.…

There is bountiful evidence that political uncertainty stemming from presidential elections or doubt about the direction of future policy make financial markets significantly volatile, especially in proximity to close elections or elections…

Contributing to the toolbox for interpreting election results, we evaluate the robustness of election winners to random noise. We compare the robustness of different voting rules and evaluate the robustness of real-world election winners…

The popularity of social media makes politicians use it for political advertisement. Therefore, social media is full of electoral agitation (electioneering), especially during the election campaigns. The election administration cannot track…

The article is devoted to the competitiveness analysis of Russian institutions of higher education in international and local markets. The methodology of research is based on generalized modified principal component analysis. Principal…

Let $n$ be a large integer and $M_n$ be a random $n$ by $n$ matrix whose entries are i.i.d. Bernoulli random variables (each entry is $\pm 1$ with probability 1/2). We show that the probability that $M_n$ is singular is at most $(3/4…

In this paper we investigate the level sets of extremal Sobolev functions for subcritical exponents p. We conjecture that as p increases the corresponding extremal functions become more peaked, which we can measure by comparing their…

We explore the statistical laws behind the plurality voting system by investigating the election results for mayor held in Brazil in 2004. Our analysis indicate that the vote partition among mayor candidates of the same city tends to be…

We investigate the probability that a random odd composite number passes a random Fermat primality test, improving on earlier estimates in moderate ranges. For example, with random numbers to $2^{200}$, our results improve on prior…

We study the variation of word frequencies in Russian literary texts. Our findings indicate that the standard deviation of a word's frequency across texts depends on its average frequency according to a power law with exponent $0.62,$…

In many proportional parliamentary elections, electoral thresholds (typically 3-5%) are used to promote stability and governability by preventing the election of parties with very small representation. However, these thresholds often result…

We compare federal election results for each state versus the USA in every second year from 1992 to 2018, to model partisan lean of each state and its dependence on the nationwide popular vote. For each state, we model both its current…

We investigate the connections between patterns in permutations and forbidden configurations in restricted elections, first discovered by Lackner and Lackner, in order to enhance the approach initiated by the two mentioned authors. More…

The information in an individual finite object (like a binary string) is commonly measured by its Kolmogorov complexity. One can divide that information into two parts: the information accounting for the useful regularity present in the…

We consider the predictive problem of supervised ranking, where the task is to rank sets of candidate items returned in response to queries. Although there exist statistical procedures that come with guarantees of consistency in this…

Conventional, parametric multinomial logit models are in general not sufficient for detecting the complex patterns voter profiles nowadays typically exhibit. In this manuscript, we use a semiparametric multinomial logit model to give a…

Competition between varying ideas, people and institutions fuels the dynamics of socio-economic systems. Numerous analyses of the empirical data extracted from different financial markets have established a consistent set of stylized facts…

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between electoral polls and indicators of economic and financial uncertainty during the last two U.S. presidential elections (2020 and 2024). Using daily polling data on Donald Trump and measures…

The statistical properties of finite-time Lyapunov exponents at the Ulam point of the logistic map are investigated. The exact analytical expression for the autocorrelation function of one-step Lyapunov exponents is obtained, allowing the…

Using the recently introduced declination function, we estimate the net number of seats won in the US House of Representatives due to asymmetries in vote distributions. Such asymmetries can arise from combinations of partisan gerrymandering…