相关论文: Putin's peaks: Russian election data revisited
Consider an urn containing balls labeled with integer values. Define a discrete-time random process by drawing two balls, one at a time and with replacement, and noting the labels. Add a new ball labeled with the sum of the two drawn…
The Russian Internet Research Agency's (IRA) online interference campaign in the 2016 U.S. presidential election represents a turning point in the trajectory of democratic elections in the digital age. What can we learn about how the IRA…
The article presents a study of some characteristics of post and comment publishing in the Russian segment of Facebook. A number of non-trivial results has been obtained. For example, a significant anomaly has been detected in the number of…
In multiwinner approval elections with many candidates, voters may struggle to determine their preferences over the entire slate of candidates. It is therefore of interest to explore which (if any) fairness guarantees can be provided under…
One of the most widely known and important applications of probability and statistics is scientific polling to forecast election results. In 1936, Gallup predicted correctly the victory of Roosevelt over Landon in the US presidential…
We investigate the distribution of the digits of quotients of randomly chosen positive integers taken from the interval $[1,T]$, improving the previously known error term for the counting function as $T\to+\infty$. We also resolve some…
The chronicle of prime numbers travel back thousands of years in human history. Not only the traits of prime numbers have surprised people, but also all those endeavors made for ages to find a pattern in the appearance of prime numbers has…
The polarization of political opinions among members of the U.S. legislative chambers measured by their voting records is greater today than it was thirty years ago. Previous research efforts to find causes of such increase have suggested…
Content on Twitter's home timeline is selected and ordered by personalization algorithms. By consistently ranking certain content higher, these algorithms may amplify some messages while reducing the visibility of others. There's been…
Effective bounds on the union probability are well known to be beneficial in the analysis of stochastic problems in many areas, including probability theory, information theory, statistical communications, computing and operations research.…
Issue salience is a major determinant in voters' decisions. Candidates and political parties campaign to shift salience to their advantage - a process termed priming. We study the dynamics, strategies and equilibria of campaign spending for…
It is part of our daily social-media experience that seemingly ordinary items (videos, news, publications, etc.) unexpectedly gain an enormous amount of attention. Here we investigate how unexpected these events are. We propose a method…
Governments use propaganda, including through visual content -- or Politically Salient Image Patterns (PSIP) -- on social media, to influence and manipulate public opinion. In the present work, we collected Telegram post-history of from 989…
Social media has played an important role in shaping political discourse over the last decade. At the same time, it is often perceived to have increased political polarization, thanks to the scale of discussions and their public nature. In…
This paper presents a data set describing the evolution of results in the Portuguese Parliamentary Elections of October 6$^{th}$ 2019. The data spans a time interval of 4 hours and 25 minutes, in intervals of 5 minutes, concerning the…
In 2016, a network of social media accounts animated by Russian operatives attempted to divert political discourse within the American public around the presidential elections. This was a coordinated effort, part of a Russian-led complex…
We analyze how numerical experiments regarding elections were conducted within the computational social choice literature (focusing on papers published in the IJCAI, AAAI, and AAMAS conferences). We analyze the sizes of the studied…
Merging asymptotic expansions of arbitrary length are established for the distribution functions and for the probabilities of suitably centered and normalized cumulative winnings in a full sequence of generalized St. Petersburg games,…
We present a novel model for the effect of echo chambers, filter bubbles, and reinforcement on election results. Our model extends the well known voter model with zealots to include reinforcement. We analyze the behaviour of the model,…
The only acceptable form of polling in the multi-billion dollar survey research field utilizes representative samples. We argue that with proper statistical adjustment, non-representative polling can provide accurate predictions, and often…