相关论文: Putin's peaks: Russian election data revisited

Today, our more-than-ever digital lives leave significant footprints in cyberspace. Large scale collections of these socially generated footprints, often known as big data, could help us to re-investigate different aspects of our social…

Taleb (2018) claimed a novel approach to evaluating the quality of probabilistic election forecasts via no-arbitrage pricing techniques and argued that popular forecasts of the 2016 U.S. Presidential election had violated arbitrage…

Within this paper we develop and apply new methodology adequately including undecided voters for the 2021 German federal election. Due to a cooperation with the polling institute Civey, we are in the fortunate position to obtain data in…

Online social media are key platforms for the public to discuss political issues. As a result, researchers have used data from these platforms to analyze public opinions and forecast election results. Recent studies reveal the existence of…

Predicting X from Twitter is a popular fad within the Twitter research subculture. It seems both appealing and relatively easy. Among such kind of studies, electoral prediction is maybe the most attractive, and at this moment there is a…

This paper develops a geometric reinterpretation of probability in which expectation arises from averaging in probability coordinates rather than in value space. By interpreting the cumulative distribution functions as coordinate maps, a…

We show how different random thin sets of integers may have different behaviour. First, using a recent deviation inequality of Boucheron, Lugosi and Massart, we give a simpler proof of one of our results in {\sl Some new thin sets of…

This paper analyzes several interest rates time series from the United Kingdom during the period 1999 to 2014. The analysis is carried out using a pioneering statistical tool in the financial literature: the complexity-entropy causality…

Population protocols are a relatively novel computational model in which very resource-limited anonymous agents interact in pairs with the goal of computing predicates. We consider the probabilistic version of this model, which naturally…

In this contribution, we construct a connection between two quantum voting models presented previously. We propose to try to determine the result of a vote from associated given opinion polls. We introduce a density operator relative to the…

We model bipartisan elections where voters are exposed to two forces: local homophilic interactions and external influence from two political campaigns. The model is mathematically equivalent to the random field Ising model with a bimodal…

Political elections are one of the most significant aspects of what constitutes the fabric of the United States. In recent history, typical polling estimates have largely lacked precision in predicting election outcomes, which has not only…

Consider a binary string $x$ of length $n$ whose Kolmogorov complexity is $\alpha n$ for some $\alpha<1$. We want to increase the complexity of $x$ by changing a small fraction of bits in $x$. This is always possible: Buhrman, Fortnow,…

While voters from opposing parties have traditionally exhibited symmetric levels of hostility toward out-party candidates, our analysis of the 2016 and 2020 Nationscape data reveals a notable departure from this pattern. In 2016, negative…

Several elections run in the last years have been characterized by attempts to manipulate the result of the election through the diffusion of fake or malicious news over social networks. This problem has been recognized as a critical issue…

Brexit, a global pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and record inflation - few legislative bodies have faced such a cascade of shocks as the European Parliament did during its 9th term (2019-2024). Using the Bipartite Configuration…

We investigate integer numbers which possess at the same time the properties to be triangulars and squares, that are, numbers $a$ for which do exist integers $m$ and $n$ such that $ a = n^2 = \frac{m \cdot (m+1)}{2} $. In particular, we are…

Randomness in scientific estimation is generally assumed to arise from unmeasured or uncontrolled factors. However, when combining subjective probability estimates, heterogeneity stemming from people's cognitive or information diversity is…

We study computational problems for two popular parliamentary voting procedures: the amendment procedure and the successive procedure. While finding successful manipulations or agenda controls is tractable for both procedures, our…

We introduce new power indices to measure the a priori voting power of voters in liquid democracy elections where an underlying network restricts delegations. We argue that our power indices are natural extensions of the standard…