相关论文: SIQ: a delay differential equations model for dise…

We study the impact of model parameter uncertainty on optimally mitigating the spread of epidemics. We capture the epidemic spreading process using a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemic model and consider testing for isolation as…

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has very strongly recommended testing and isolation as a strategy for controlling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The goal of this paper is to quantify the effects of detection and isolation in formal…

We analyze an optimal control version of a simple SIRS epidemiology model. The policy maker can adopt policies to diminish the contact rate between infected and susceptible individuals, at a specific economic cost. The arrival of a vaccine…

During a pandemic, there are conflicting demands arising from public health and economic cost. Lockdowns are a common way of containing infections, but they adversely affect the economy. We study the question of how to minimise the economic…

There has been interest in the interactions between infectious disease dynamics and behaviour for most of the history of mathematical epidemiology. This has included consideration of which mathematical models best capture each phenomenon,…

Epidemiological delays, such as incubation periods, serial intervals, and hospital lengths of stay, are among key quantities in infectious disease epidemiology that inform public health policy and clinical practice. This information is used…

In this work we introduce a differential equation model with time-delay that describes the three-stage dynamics and the two time scales observed in HIV infection. Assuming that the virus has high mutation and rapid reproduction rates that…

In the Staged Progression (SP) epidemic models, infected individuals are classified into a suitable number of states. The goal of these models is to describe as closely as possible the effect of differences in infectiousness exhibited by…

In this paper, we study an analytically tractable SIS model with a non-linear incidence rate for the number of infectious individuals described through a stochastic differential equation (SDE). We guarantee the existence of a positive…

We consider a multi-population epidemic model with one or more (almost) isolated communities and one mobile community. Each of the isolated communities has contact within itself and, in addition, contact with the outside world but only…

The main purpose of this paper is to provide a summary of the fundamental methods for analyzing delay differential equations arising in biology and medicine. These methods are employed to illustrate the effects of time delay on the behavior…

In this paper we study the approximate controllability and existence of optimal control of impulsive fractional semilinear delay differential equations with non-local conditions. We use Sadovskii's fixed point theorem, semigroup theory of…

The infection dynamics of a population under stationary isolation conditions is modeled. It is underlined that the stationary character of the isolation measures can be expected to imply that an effective SIR model with constant parameters…

This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…

Our study is based on an epidemiological compartmental model, the SIRS model. In the SIRS model, each individual is in one of the states susceptible (S), infected(I) or recovered (R), depending on its state of health. In compartment R, an…

We present an application of optimal control theory to Dengue epidemics. This epidemiologic disease is an important theme in tropical countries due to the growing number of infected individuals. The dynamic model is described by a set of…

As global living standards improve and medical technology advances, many infectious diseases have been effectively controlled. However, certain diseases, such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic, continue to pose significant threats to public…

Infectious diseases pose major public health challenges to society, highlighting the importance of designing effective policies to reduce economic loss and mortality. In this paper, we propose a framework for sequential decision-making…

In this paper, we present a discrete-time networked SEIR model using population flow, its derivation, and assumptions under which this model is well defined. We identify properties of the system's equilibria, namely the healthy states. We…

We study the relative importance of two key control measures for epidemic spreading: endogenous social self-distancing and exogenous imposed quarantine. We use the framework of adaptive networks, moment-closure, and ordinary differential…