相关论文: Risk ratios for contagious outcomes
Early estimates of the transmission properties of a newly emerged pathogen are critical to an effective public health response, and are often based on limited outbreak data. Here, we use simulations to investigate a potential source of bias…
Construction of just-in-time adaptive interventions, such as prompts delivered by mobile apps to promote and maintain behavioral change, requires knowledge about time-varying moderated effects to inform when and how we deliver intervention…
The time-dependent reproduction number Rt can be used to track pathogen transmission and to assess the efficacy of interventions. This quantity can be estimated by fitting renewal equation models to time series of infectious disease case…
We introduce a new type of point process model to describe the incidence of contagious diseases. The model is a variant of the Hawkes self-exciting process and exhibits similar clustering but without the restriction that the component…
We study contact epidemic models for the spread of infective diseases in finite populations. The size dependence enters in the infection rate. The dynamics of such models is then analyzed within the deterministic approximation, as well as…
In this paper we first introduce the general stochastic epidemic model for the spread of infectious diseases. Then we give methods for inferring model parameters such as the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and vaccination coverage $v_c$…
In an increasingly interconnected world, a key scientific challenge is to examine mechanisms that lead to the widespread propagation of contagions, such as misinformation and pathogens, and identify risk factors that can trigger large-scale…
Mendelian randomization uses genetic variants to make causal inferences about a modifiable exposure. Subject to a genetic variant satisfying the instrumental variable assumptions, an association between the variant and outcome implies a…
Recent years have seen increasing efforts to forecast infectious disease burdens, with a primary goal being to help public health workers make informed policy decisions. However, there has only been limited discussion of how predominant…
Estimating risk factors for incidence of a disease is crucial for understanding its etiology. For diseases caused by enteric pathogens, off-the-shelf statistical model-based approaches do not consider the biological mechanisms through which…
We investigate opinion spreading by a threshold model in a situation where the influence of people is heterogeneously distributed. We focus on the response of the average opinion as a function between the trend between out-degree (number of…
Modeling epidemic dynamics plays an important role in studying how diseases spread, predicting their future course, and designing strategies to control them. In this letter, we introduce a model of SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) type…
There are many hard-to-reconcile numbers circulating concerning Covid-19. Using reports from random testing, the fatality ratio per infection is evaluated and used to extract further information on the actual fraction of infections and the…
Dealing with distribution shifts is one of the central challenges for modern machine learning. One fundamental situation is the covariate shift, where the input distributions of data change from training to testing stages while the…
The efficacy of an intervention can be assessed by randomizing patients to different diagnostic tests instead of directly to an intervention and control. This principle is applied by allocating individuals to intervention if the test result…
Many important questions in infectious disease epidemiology involve the effects of covariates (e.g., age or vaccination status) on infectiousness and susceptibility, which can be measured in studies of transmission in households or other…
Combining patient-level data from clinical trials can connect rare phenomena with clinical endpoints, but statistical techniques applied to a single trial may become problematical when trials are pooled. Estimating the hazard of a binary…
Stochasticity and spatial heterogeneity are of great interest recently in studying the spread of an infectious disease. The presented method solves an inverse problem to discover the effectively decisive topology of a heterogeneous network…
The spread of an infectious disease can be promoted by previous infections with other pathogens. This cooperative effect can give rise to violent outbreaks, reflecting the presence of an abrupt epidemic transition. As for other diffusive…
During contagion phenomena, individuals perceiving a risk of infection commonly adapt their behavior and reduce their exposure. The effects of such adaptive mechanisms have been studied for processes in which pairwise interactions drive…