相关论文: Risk ratios for contagious outcomes

Ideas, behaviors, and opinions spread through social networks. If the probability of spreading to a new individual is a non-linear function of the fraction of the individuals' affected neighbors, such a spreading process becomes a "complex…

Interference occurs when the potential outcomes of a unit depend on the treatment of others. Interference can be highly heterogeneous, where treating certain individuals might have a larger effect on the population's overall outcome. A…

We consider two approaches to study the spread of infectious diseases within a spatially structured population distributed in social clusters. According whether we consider only the population of infected individuals or both populations of…

Interference arises when an individual's potential outcome depends on the individual treatment level, but also on the treatment level of others. A common assumption in the causal inference literature in the presence of interference is…

In normal times, it is assumed that financial institutions operating in non-overlapping sectors have complementary and distinct outcomes, typically reflected in mostly uncorrelated outcomes and asset returns. Such is the reasoning behind…

We build a Bayesian contextual classification model using an optimistic score ratio for robust binary classification when there is limited information on the class-conditional, or contextual, distribution. The optimistic score searches for…

Traditional epidemic models consider that individual processes occur at constant rates. That is, an infected individual has a constant probability per unit time of recovering from infection after contagion. This assumption certainly fails…

We propose and study a fully efficient method to estimate associations of an exposure with disease incidence when both, incident cases and prevalent cases, i.e. individuals who were diagnosed with the disease at some prior time point and…

We consider a stochastic epidemic model with sideward contact tracing. We assume that infection is driven by interactions within mixing events (gatherings of two or more individuals). Once an infective is diagnosed, each individual who was…

Predictive risk scores estimating probabilities for a binary outcome on the basis of observed covariates are common across the sciences. They are frequently developed with the intent of avoiding the outcome in question by intervening in…

Airborne infection risk analysis is usually performed for enclosed spaces where susceptible individuals are exposed to infectious airborne respiratory droplets by inhalation. It is usually based on exponential, dose-response models of which…

Statistical significance measures the reliability of a result obtained from a random experiment. We investigate the number of repetitions needed for a statistical result to have a certain significance. In the first step, we consider…

Hazard serves as a pivotal estimand in both practical applications and methodological frameworks. However, its causal interpretation poses notable challenges, including inherent selection biases and ill-defined populations to be compared…

We consider the spread of a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease through finite populations and derive an expression for the final size distribution. Our derivation allows arbitrary distributions of the number of transmissions…

When an infection spreads in a community, an individual's probability of becoming infected depends on both her susceptibility and exposure to the contagion through contact with others. While one often has knowledge regarding an individual's…

Having reliable estimates of the occurrence rates of extreme events is highly important for insurance companies, government agencies and the general public. The rarity of an extreme event is typically expressed through its return period,…

Most epidemic models assume equal mixing among members of a population. An alternative approach is to model a population as random network in which individuals may have heterogeneous connectivity. This paper builds on previous research by…

Harrel's concordance index is a commonly used discrimination metric for survival models, particularly for models where the relative ordering of the risk of individuals is time-independent, such as the proportional hazards model. There are…

Time to event outcomes are often evaluated on the hazard scale, but interpreting hazards may be difficult. Recently, there has been concern in the causal inference literature that hazards actually have a built in selection-effect that…

In reliability and life testing studies, the topic of estimating hazard rate has received great attention in recent years since an estimate of hazard rate is a quite useful tool for making decisions. Some works have included nonparametric…