相关论文: Risk ratios for contagious outcomes
Heterogeneity is an important property of any population experiencing a disease. Here we apply general methods of the theory of heterogeneous populations to the simplest mathematical models in epidemiology. In particular, an SIR…
Hazard ratios are prone to selection bias, compromising their use as causal estimands. On the other hand, the hazard difference has been shown to remain unaffected by the selection of frailty factors over time. Therefore, observed hazard…
In general, the rates of infection and removal (whether through recovery or death) are nonlinear functions of the number of infected and susceptible individuals. One of the simplest models for the spread of infectious diseases is the SIR…
We study a simple case of the susceptible-weakened-infected-removed model in regular random graphs in a situation where an epidemic starts from a finite fraction of initially infected nodes (seeds). Previous studies have shown that,…
Treatment effect estimands based on win statistics, including the win ratio, win odds, and win difference are increasingly popular targets for summarizing endpoints in clinical trials. Such win estimands offer an intuitive approach for…
The moments of random variables are fundamental statistical measures for characterizing the shape of a probability distribution, encompassing metrics such as mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis. Additionally, the product moments,…
Two factors that are often ignored but could play a crucial role in the progression of an infectious disease are the distributions of inherent susceptibility ($\sigma_{inh}$) and external infectivity ($\iota_{ext}$), in a given population.…
Infectious zoonotic disease emergence, through spillover events, is of global concern and has the potential to cause significant harm to society, as recently demonstrated by COVID-19. More than 70% of the 400 infectious diseases that…
We often seek to estimate the impact of an exposure naturally occurring or randomly assigned at the cluster-level. For example, the literature on neighborhood determinants of health continues to grow. Likewise, community randomized trials…
The ratio of the hazard functions of two populations or two strata of a single population plays an important role in time-to-event analysis. Cox regression is commonly used to estimate the hazard ratio under the assumption that it is…
Incidence estimation of HIV infection can be performed using recent infection testing algorithm (RITA) results from a cross-sectional sample. This allows practitioners to understand population trends in the HIV epidemic without having to…
These notes describe stochastic epidemics in a homogenous community. Our main concern is stochastic compartmental models (i.e. models where each individual belongs to a compartment, which stands for its status regarding the epidemic under…
This work presents a model combining the simplest communicable and non-communicable disease models. The latter is, by far, the leading cause of sickness and death in the World, and introduces basal heterogeneity in populations where…
We study a simple, solvable model that allows us to investigate effects of credit contagion on the default probability of individual firms, in both portfolios of firms and on an economy wide scale. While the effect of interactions may be…
BACKGROUND. Epidemic models of STIs are often used to characterize the contribution of risk groups to overall transmission by projecting the transmission population attributable fraction (tPAF) of unmet prevention and treatment needs within…
Motivated by the analysis of social networks, we study a model of random networks that has both a given degree distribution and a tunable clustering coefficient. We consider two types of growth processes on these graphs: diffusion and…
The shape of the relationship between a continuous exposure variable and a binary disease variable is often central to epidemiologic investigations. This paper investigates a number of issues surrounding inference and the shape of the…
In a randomized study, leveraging covariates related to the outcome (e.g. disease status) may produce less variable estimates of the effect of exposure. For contagion processes operating on a contact network, transmission can only occur…
Infectious disease dynamics operate across multiple biological scales, with within-host viral dynamics being a key driver of between-host transmission. However, while models that explicitly link these scales exist, none have been developed…
Previous studies have shown that hazard ratios between treatment groups estimated with the Cox model are uninterpretable because the unspecified baseline hazard of the model fails to identify temporal change in the risk set composition due…