相关论文: "Butterfly Effect" vs Chaos in Energy Futures Mark…

In Chaos, a minor divergence between two initial conditions exhibits exponential amplification over time, leading to far-away outcomes, known as the butterfly effect. Thus, the distant future is full of uncertainty and hard to forecast. We…

Chaos is widely understood as being a consequence of sensitive dependence upon initial conditions. This is the result of an instability in phase space, which separates trajectories exponentially. Here, we demonstrate that this criterion…

We test whether the futures prices of some commodity and energy markets are determined by stochastic rules or exhibit nonlinear deterministic endogenous fluctuations. As for the methodologies, we use the maximal Lyapunov exponents (MLE) and…

This paper shows that with mechanistic primary budget rules and with some simple assumptions on interest rates the well-known debt dynamics equation transforms into the infamous logistic map. The logistic map has very peculiar and rich…

The Butterfly Effect, a concept originating from chaos theory, underscores how small changes can have significant and unpredictable impacts on complex systems. In the context of AI fairness and bias, the Butterfly Effect can stem from a…

The butterfly effect is today commonly identified with the sensitive dependence of deterministic chaotic systems upon initial conditions. However, this is only one facet of the notion of unpredictability pioneered by Lorenz, who actually…

The term "butterfly effect" means an extreme sensitivity of a dynamical system to small perturbations: "The beating of a butterfly wing in South America can result in the considerable change of positions and force of a tropical cyclon in…

We illustrate that, like the truncation error, the round-off error has a significant influence on the reliability of numerical simulations of chaotic dynamic systems. Due to the butterfly-effect, all numerical approaches in double precision…

We define and study a rather complex market model, inspired from the Santa Fe artificial market and the Minority Game. Agents have different strategies among which they can choose, according to their relative profitability, with the…

The ``butterfly effect'', i.e. the growth of a localized infinitesimal perturbation, is the fundamental property of chaotic systems. While the butterfly effect is today an obvious property of low-dimensional chaotic systems, its…

Fractional statistics and quantum chaos are both phenomena associated with the non-local storage of quantum information. In this article, we point out a connection between the butterfly effect in (1+1)-dimensional rational conformal field…

We investigate the sensitivity of quantum systems that are chaotic in a classical limit, to small perturbations of their equations of motion. This sensitivity, originally studied in the context of defining quantum chaos, is relevant to…

We consider the randomness of market trade as the origin of price and return stochasticity. We look at time series of trade values and volumes as random variables during the averaging interval {\Delta} and describe the dependences of…

Equity default-swaps pay the holder a fixed amount of money when the underlying spot level touches a (far-down) barrier during the life of the instrument. While most pricing models give reasonable results when the barrier lies within the…

The predictability of a time series is determined by the sensitivity to initial conditions of its data generating process. In this paper our goal is to characterize this sensitivity from a finite sample by assuming few hypotheses on the…

The problem related to predicting dynamic volatility in financial market plays a crucial role in many contexts. We build a new generalized Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (BN-S) model suitable for uncertain environment with fuzziness and…

Global oil price is an important factor in determining many economic variables in the world's economy. It is generally modeled as a stochastic process and have been studied through different techniques by comparing the historic time series…

A dynamical model is introduced for the formation of a bullish or bearish trends driving an asset price in a given market. Initially, each agent decides to buy or sell according to its personal opinion, which results from the combination of…

I propose a new theory on the nature of turbulence: when the Reynolds number is large, violent fully developed turbulence is due to "rough dependence on initial data" rather than chaos which is caused by "sensitive dependence on initial…

Motivated by the design question of additional fuel needed to complete a task in an uncertain environment, this paper introduces metrics to quantify the maximal additional energy used by a control system in the presence of bounded…