相关论文: Deciphering infant mortality. Part 1: empirical ev…

Multi-state models provide an extension of the usual survival/event-history analysis setting. In the medical domain, multi-state models give the possibility of further investigating intermediate events such as relapse and remission. In this…

In this paper we explore the life expectancy limits by based on the stochastic modeling of mortality and applying the first exit or hitting time theory of a stochastic process. The main assumption is that the health state or the "vitality",…

Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights…

We study the probabilistic evolution of a birth and death continuous time measure-valued process with mutations and ecological interactions. The individuals are characterized by (phenotypic) traits that take values in a compact metric…

The paper studies the counting process arising as a subset of births and deaths in a birth--death process on a finite state space. Whenever a birth or death occurs, the process is incremented or not depending on the outcome of an…

We study the evolution of offspring sex ratios using a game-theoretical model in which the decision to have another child depends on the sex of the previous child. Motivated by higher male infant mortality and the tendency to try again…

Investigating the ``physics'' of food crises consists in identifying features which are common to all large-scale food crises. One element which stands out is the fact that during a food crisis there is not only a surge in deaths but also a…

Many researchers have investigated first hitting times as models for survival data. First hitting times arise naturally in many types of stochastic processes, ranging from Wiener processes to Markov chains. In a survival context, the state…

The dynamics of a population exhibiting exponential growth can be modelled as a birth-death process, which naturally captures the stochastic variation in population size over time. In this article, we consider a supercritical birth-death…

Analysis of child mortality is crucial as it pertains to the policy and programs of a country. The early assessment of patterns and trends in causes of child mortality help decision-makers assess needs, prioritize interventions, and monitor…

Estimation of stillbirth rates globally is complicated because of the paucity of reliable data from countries where most stillbirths occur. We compiled data and developed a Bayesian hierarchical temporal sparse regression model for…

In this paper, we analyzed how business age and mortality are related during the first years of life, and tested the different hypotheses proposed in the literature. For that, we used data on U.S. business establishments, with 1-year…

The birth-death process is a special type of continuous-time Markov chain with index set $\mathbb{N}$. Its resolvent matrix can be fully characterized by a set of parameters $(\gamma, \beta, \nu)$, where $\gamma$ and $\beta$ are…

The aim of this paper is to study the asymptotic behavior of a system of birth and death processes in mean field type interaction in discrete space. We first establish the exponential convergence of the particle system to equilibrium for a…

We consider birth-and-death processes of objects (animals) defined in ${\bf Z}^d$ having unit death rates and random birth rates. For animals with uniformly bounded diameter we establish conditions on the rate distribution under which the…

Forest-fire and avalanche models support the notion that frequent catastrophes prevent the growth of very large populations and as such prevent rare large-scale catastrophes. We show that this notion is not universal. A new model class…

This paper concentrates on the general birth-death processes with two different types of catastrophes. The Laplace transform of transition probability function for birth-death processes with two-type catastrophes are is successfully…

The paper considers a continuous-time birth-death process where the jump rate has an asymptotically polynomial dependence on the process position. We obtain a rough exponential asymptotics for the probability of excursions of a re-scaled…

The United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 aims to reduce under-5 child mortality to 25 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2030. Child mortality tends to be concentrated in developing regions where much of the information needed to…

We introduce a class of branching processes in which the reproduction or lifetime distribution at a given time depends on the total cumulative number of individuals who have been born in the population until that time. We focus on a…