相关论文: Quasi likelihood analysis of point processes for u…

An estimation method is proposed for a wide variety of discrete time stochastic processes that have an intractable likelihood function but are otherwise conveniently specified by an integral transform such as the characteristic function,…

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, insurance, neuroscience,…

We propose an extension to Hawkes processes by treating the levels of self-excitation as a stochastic differential equation. Our new point process allows better approximation in application domains where events and intensities accelerate…

We consider statistical inference for a class of dynamic mixed-effect models described by stochastic differential equations whose drift and diffusion coefficients simultaneously depend on fixed- and random-effect parameters. Assuming that…

We present a review of some recent results on estimation of location parameter for several models of observations with cusp-type singularity at the change point. We suppose that the cusp-type models fit better to the real phenomena…

We introduce a broad class of models called semiparametric spatial point process for making inference between spatial point patterns and spatial covariates. These models feature an intensity function with both parametric and nonparametric…

We present a careful analysis of possible issues on the application of the self-excited Hawkes process to high-frequency financial data. We carefully analyze a set of effects leading to significant biases in the estimation of the…

Estimation of the intensity of a point process is considered within a nonparametric framework. The intensity measure is unknown and depends on covariates, possibly many more than the observed number of jumps. Only a single trajectory of the…

In this paper, we consider the sigmoid Gaussian Hawkes process model: the baseline intensity and triggering kernel of Hawkes process are both modeled as the sigmoid transformation of random trajectories drawn from Gaussian processes (GP).…

Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are an important class of temporal point processes that have enabled key advances in understanding and predicting social information systems. However, due to their complex modeling of temporal…

Point processes are becoming very popular in modeling asynchronous sequential data due to their sound mathematical foundation and strength in modeling a variety of real-world phenomena. Currently, they are often characterized via intensity…

We introduce and show the existence of a Hawkes self-exciting point process with exponentially-decreasing kernel and where parameters are time-varying. The quantity of interest is defined as the integrated parameter…

The multivariate Hawkes process is a past-dependent point process used to model the relationship of event occurrences between different phenomena.Although the Hawkes process was originally introduced to describe excitation effects, which…

In healthcare, the highest risk individuals for morbidity and mortality are rarely those with the greatest modifiable risk. By contrast, many machine learning formulations implicitly attend to the highest risk individuals. We focus on this…

We develop a computational procedure to estimate the covariance hyperparameters for semiparametric Gaussian process regression models with additive noise. Namely, the presented method can be used to efficiently estimate the variance of the…

Targeting a better understanding of credit market dynamics, the authors have studied a stochastic model named the Hawkes process. Describing trades arrival times, this kind of model allows for the capture of self-excitement and mutual…

Multivariate Hawkes processes are past-dependant point processes originally introduced to model excitation effects, later extended to a nonlinear framework to account for the opposite effect, known as inhibition. Motivated by applications…

Hawkes process is a simple point process that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, neuroscience, social networks,…

In this paper, we present a maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of a univariate Hawkes process with self-excitation or inhibition. Our work generalizes techniques and results that were restricted to the self-exciting…

In extreme value analysis, sensitivity of inference to the definition of extreme event is a paramount issue. Under the peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach, this translates directly into the need of fitting a Generalized Pareto distribution…