相关论文: Predicting and controlling the Ebola infection

We present a method for estimating epidemic parameters in network-based stochastic epidemic models when the total number of infections is assumed to be small. We illustrate the method by reanalyzing the data from the 2014 Democratic…

This paper is concerned with the well-posedness and optimal control problem of a reaction-diffusion system for an epidemic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) mathematical model in which the dynamics develops in a spatially…

In the present paper, our goal is to establish a framework for the mathematical modelling and the analysis of the spread of an epidemic in a large population commuting regularly, typically along a time-periodic pattern, as is roughly…

In this work we are interested in the modelling and control of opinion dynamics spreading on a time evolving network with scale-free asymptotic degree distribution. The mathematical model is formulated as a coupling of an opinion alignment…

The proliferation of terrorism is a serious concern in national and international security, as its spread is seen as an existential threat to Western liberal democracies. Understanding and effectively modelling the spread of terrorism…

The spreading dynamics of infectious diseases is influenced by individual behaviours, which are in turn affected by the level of awareness about the epidemic. Modelling the co-evolution of disease transmission and behavioural changes within…

This study presents a neural network-enhanced approach to modeling disease spread dynamics over time and space. Neural networks are used to estimate time-varying parameters, with two calibration methods explored: Approximate Bayesian…

Solving complex optimal control problems have confronted computational challenges for a long time. Recent advances in machine learning have provided us with new opportunities to address these challenges. This paper takes model predictive…

Epidemic spread on networks is one of the most studied dynamics in network science and has important implications in real epidemic scenarios. Nonetheless, the dynamics of real epidemics and how it is affected by the underline structure of…

Motivated by recent outbreaks of the Ebola Virus, we are concerned with the role that a vector reservoir plays in supporting the spatio-temporal spread of a highly lethal disease through a host population. In our context, the reservoir is a…

We propose a mathematical model to analyze the time evolution of the total number of infected population with Covid-19 disease at a region in the ongoing pandemic. Using the available data of Covid-19 infected population on various…

Coalescent theory combined with statistical modeling allows us to estimate effective population size fluctuations from molecular sequences of individuals sampled from a population of interest. When sequences are sampled serially through…

During the last decades, the global prevalence of dengue progressed dramatically. It is a disease that is now endemic in more than one hundred countries of Africa, America, Asia, and the Western Pacific. In this paper, we present a…

Mathematical modelling can help to explain the nature and dynamics of infection transmissions, as well as support a policy for implementing those strategies that are most likely to bring public health and economic benefits. The paper…

Diffusion processes in networks are increasingly used to model the spread of information and social influence. In several applications in computational sustainability such as the spread of wildlife, infectious diseases and traffic mobility…

We investigate the spreading of information through Twitter messaging related to the spread of Ebola in western Africa using epidemic based dynamic models. Diffusive spreading leads to NLPDE models and fixed point analysis yields systems of…

To curb the spread of COVID-19, many governments around the world have implemented tiered lockdowns with varying degrees of stringency. Lockdown levels are typically increased when the disease spreads and reduced when the disease abates. A…

In this paper, we propose a realistic mathematical model taking into account the mutual interference among the interacting populations. This model attempts to describe the control (vaccination) function as a function of the number of…

We propose a new mathematical model for the spread of Zika virus. Special attention is paid to the transmission of microcephaly. Numerical simulations show the accuracy of the model with respect to the Zika outbreak occurred in Brazil.

With the rise of computers, simulation models have emerged beside the more traditional statistical and mathematical models as a third pillar for ecological analysis. Broadly speaking, a simulation model is an algorithm, typically…