相关论文: Predicting and controlling the Ebola infection
We introduce a simple multiplicative model to describe the temporal behavior and the ultimate outcome of an epidemic. Our model accounts, in a minimalist way, for the competing influences of imposing public-health restrictions when the…
We develop simple models for the global spread of infectious diseases, emphasizing human mobility via air travel and the variation of public health infrastructure from region to region. We derive formulas relating the total and peak number…
We apply optimal control theory to a tuberculosis model given by a system of ordinary differential equations. Optimal control strategies are proposed to minimize the cost of interventions. Numerical simulations are given using data from…
In early 2014 an outbreak of a slightly mutated Zaire Ebola subtype appeared in West Africa which is less virulent than 1976 and 1994 strains. The numbers of cases per year appear to be ~ 1000 times larger than the earlier strains,…
Viruses constantly undergo mutations with genomic changes. The propagation of variants of viruses is an interesting problem. We perform numerical simulations of the microscopic epidemic model based on network theory for the spread of…
Nowadays, one of the challenges we face when carrying out modeling of epidemic spreading is to develop methods to control disease transmission. In this article we study how the spreading of knowledge of a disease affects the propagation of…
The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading is commonly carried out on secondary case…
Two crucial elements facilitate the understanding and control of communicable disease spread within a social setting. These components are, the underlying contact structure among individuals that determines the pattern of disease…
The humanity has been facing a plethora of challenges associated with infectious diseases, which kill more than 6 million people a year. Although continuous efforts have been applied to relieve the potential damages from such misfortunate…
We propose to utilize mobile phone technology as a vehicle for people to report their symptoms and to receive immediate feedback about the health services readily available, and for predicting spatial disease outbreak risk. Once symptoms…
A simple, but ``classical``, stochastic model for epidemic spread in a finite, but large, population is studied. The progress of the epidemic can be divided into three different phases that requires different tools to analyse. Initially the…
World models have emerged as a unifying paradigm for learning latent dynamics, simulating counterfactual futures, and supporting planning under uncertainty. In this paper, we argue that computational epidemiology is a natural and…
Background: While many infectious disease epidemics are initially characterized by an exponential growth in time, we show that district-level Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks in West Africa follow slower polynomial-based growth kinetics…
The COronaVIrus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic that has had the world in its grip from the beginning of 2020, has resulted in an unprecedented level of public interest and media attention on the field of mathematical epidemiology. Ever…
In this paper, we address a social planner's optimal control problem for a partially observable stochastic epidemic model. The control measures include social distancing, testing, and vaccination. Using a diffusion approximation for the…
Connecting the different scales of epidemic dynamics, from individuals to communities to nations, remains one of the main challenges of disease modeling. Here, we revisit one of the largest public health efforts deployed against a localized…
We consider a model for an epidemic in a population that occupies geographically distinct locations. The disease is spread within subpopulations by contacts between infective and susceptible individuals, and is spread between subpopulations…
Forecasting infectious disease outbreaks is hard. Forecasting emerging infectious diseases with limited historical data is even harder. In this paper, we investigate ways to improve emerging infectious disease forecasting under operational…
This study incorporates mathematical analysis, focusing on developing theories and conducting numerical simulations of Influenza virus transmission using real-world data. The terms in the equations introduce parameters which are determined…
The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a policy making crisis where efforts to slow down or end the pandemic conflict with economic priorities. This paper provides mathematical analysis of optimal disease control policies with idealized…