相关论文: Global Threshold Dynamics of a Stochastic Differen…
Empirical records of epidemics reveal that fluctuations are important factors for the spread and prevalence of infectious diseases. The exact manner in which fluctuations affect spreading dynamics remains poorly known. Recent analytical and…
Motivated by recent epidemic outbreaks, including those of COVID-19, we solve the canonical problem of calculating the dynamics and likelihood of extensive outbreaks in a population within a large class of stochastic epidemic models with…
Based on extensive study of a dynamical systems model of the development of a cell society, a novel theory for stem cell differentiation and its regulation is proposed as the ``chaos hypothesis''. Two fundamental features of stem cell…
We consider a simple stochastic model for the spread of a disease caused by two virus strains in a closed homogeneously mixing population of size N. The spread of each strain in the absence of the other one is described by the stochastic…
Within many bacterial colonies, persister cells exist as a subpopulation that is tolerant to antibiotics and other stressors, yet not genetically distinct from the rest of the colony. A recent study has proposed epigenetic inheritance as a…
The duration, type and structure of connections between individuals in real-world populations play a crucial role in how diseases invade and spread. Here, we incorporate the aforementioned heterogeneities into a model by considering a…
Motivated by infinite-dimensional ecological and biological models such as reaction-diffusion SPDEs and stochastic functional differential equations, we develop a general criteria for stochastic persistence (coexistence) in terms of an…
In this paper we consider an SIRS epidemic model under a general assumption of density-dependent mortality. We prove the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and propose a Lyapunov function that allows to demonstrate the global…
We study the global stability issue of the reaction-convection-diffusion cholera epidemic PDE model and show that the basic reproduction number serves as a threshold parameter that predicts whether cholera will persist or become globally…
Starting from a stochastic individual-based description of an SIS epidemic spreading on a random network, we study the dynamics when the size $n$ of the network tends to infinity. We recover in the limit an infinite-dimensional…
The robust statistical description of dynamical systems under perturbations is a central problem in ergodic theory. In this paper, we investigate the statistical properties of skew-product maps driven by a subshift of finite type with…
An important issue in theoretical epidemiology is the epidemic threshold phenomenon, which specify the conditions for an epidemic to grow or die out. In standard (mean-field-like) compartmental models the concept of the basic reproductive…
We present a mathematical model for within host viral infections that incorporates the Crowley Martin functional response, focusing on the dynamics influenced by periodic effects. This study establishes key properties of the model,…
A method is developed to estimate the properties of a global hydrodynamic instability in turbulent flows from measurement data of the limit-cycle oscillations. For this purpose, the flow dynamics are separated in deterministic contributions…
We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her "age" of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic…
Growing literatures on epidemic and rumor dynamics show that infection and information coevolve. We present a unified framework for modeling the spread of infection and information: a general class of interaction-driven fluid-limit models…
We propose two stochastic models for the Coronavirus pandemic. The statistical properties of the models, in particular the correlation functions and the probability density function, have duly been computed. Our models, which generalises a…
We predict the future course of ongoing susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemics on regular, Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi and Barab\'asi-Albert networks. It is known that the contact network influences the spread of an epidemic within a…
In this work, we propose a stochastic version of the Rosenzweig-MacArthur model solely driven by internal demographic noise, extending classical Lotka-Volterra-type systems focused on external noise. We give a criterion for the existence…
In this paper we consider the fractional SIS epidemic model ($\alpha$-SIS model) in the case of constant population size. We provide a representation of the explicit solution to the fractional model and we illustrate the results by…