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Confidence sequences, anytime p-values (called p-processes in this paper), and e-processes all enable sequential inference for composite and nonparametric classes of distributions at arbitrary stopping times. Examining the literature, one…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-11-08 Aaditya Ramdas , Johannes Ruf , Martin Larsson , Wouter Koolen

We give new proofs of certain equivalent conditions for the existence of generalized moments of a L\'evy process $(X_t)_{t\geq 0}$; in particular, the existence of a generalized $g$-moment is equivalent to the uniform integrability of…

概率论 · 数学 2022-02-21 David Berger , Franziska Kühn , René L. Schilling

Lions and Musiela (2007) give sufficient conditions to verify when a stochastic exponential of a continuous local martingale is a martingale or a uniformly integrable martingale. Blei and Engelbert (2009) and Mijatovi\'c and Urusov (2012c)…

概率论 · 数学 2014-07-10 Carole Bernard , Zhenyu Cui , Don McLeish

We propose a method to bound the expectation of the supremum of the price process in stochastic volatility models. It can be applied, for example, to the rough Bergomi model, avoiding the need to discuss finiteness of higher moments. Our…

概率论 · 数学 2026-03-20 Stefan Gerhold , Julian Pachschwöll , Johannes Ruf

The space of H1 martingales is interesting because of its duality with the space of BMO martingales. It is straightforward to show that every H1 martingale is a uniformly integrable martingale. However, the converse is not true. That is to…

概率论 · 数学 2018-04-27 Hardy Hulley , Johannes Ruf

We develop a class of exponential bounds for the probability that a martingale sequence crosses a time-dependent linear threshold. Our key insight is that it is both natural and fruitful to formulate exponential concentration inequalities…

概率论 · 数学 2025-12-18 Steven R. Howard , Aaditya Ramdas , Jon McAuliffe , Jasjeet Sekhon

Given a sequence $(M^n)^{\infty}_{n=1}$ of nonnegative martingales starting at $M^n_0=1$, we find a sequence of convex combinations $(\widetilde{M}^n)^{\infty}_{n=1}$ and a limiting process $X$ such that…

概率论 · 数学 2016-02-23 Christoph Czichowsky , Walter Schachermayer

Assume that $X$ is a continuous square integrable process with zero mean, defined on some probability space $(\Omega,\mathrm {F},\mathrm {P})$. The classical characterization due to P. L\'{e}vy says that $X$ is a Brownian motion if and only…

概率论 · 数学 2011-03-15 Yuliya Mishura , Esko Valkeila

We present a short and self-contained proof of the following result: a random time is an honest time that avoids all stopping times if and only if it coincides with the (last) time of maximum of a nonnegative local martingale with zero…

概率论 · 数学 2013-05-20 Constantinos Kardaras

Let $\{X_n\}$ be a stationary and ergodic time series taking values from a finite or countably infinite set ${\cal X}$. Assume that the distribution of the process is otherwise unknown. We propose a sequence of stopping times $\lambda_n$…

概率论 · 数学 2008-06-19 G. Morvai , B. Weiss

Positive $T$-martingales were developed as a general framework that extends the positive measure-valued martingales and are meant to model intermittent turbulence. We extend their scope by allowing the martingale to take complex values. We…

概率论 · 数学 2016-08-14 Julien Barral , Xiong Jin , Benoît Mandelbrot

We propose a sequential, anytime-valid method to test the conditional independence of a response $Y$ and a predictor $X$ given a random vector $Z$. The proposed test is based on e-statistics and test martingales, which generalize likelihood…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-02-22 Peter Grünwald , Alexander Henzi , Tyron Lardy

We give a theory of sublinear expectations and martingales in discrete time. Without assuming the existence of a dominating probability measure, we derive the extensions of classical results on uniform integrability, optional stopping of…

概率论 · 数学 2011-04-29 Samuel Cohen , Shaolin Ji , Shige Peng

This note studies the martingale property of a nonnegative, continuous local martingale Z, given as a nonanticipative functional of a solution to a stochastic differential equation. The condition states that Z is a (uniformly integrable)…

概率论 · 数学 2015-04-28 Johannes Ruf

We develop the self similarity argument known as sparse domination in an abstract martingale setting, using a continuous time parameter. With this method, we prove a sharp weighted L^p estimate for the maximal operator Y^* of Y with respect…

概率论 · 数学 2019-04-23 Komla Domelevo , Stefanie Petermichl

The following conditions are necessary and sufficient for an arbitrary c\`adl\`ag local martingale to be a uniformly integrable martingale: (i) The weak tail of the supremum of its modulus is zero; (ii) its jumps at the first-exit times…

概率论 · 数学 2015-09-01 Hardy Hulley , Johannes Ruf

We find a countable partition $P$ on\textbf{} a Lebesgue space, labeled $\{1,2,3...$\}, for any non-periodic measure preserving transformation $T$ such that $P$ generates $T$ and for the $T,P$ process, if you see an $n$ on time -1 then you…

动力系统 · 数学 2011-08-30 Steven Kalikow

Given a random sample from a random variable $T$ which is bounded from above, $T\le\tau$ a.s., we define processes that are positive supermartingales if $E(T)\ge\mu$. Such processes are called test martingales. Tests of the supermartingale…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-02-20 Harrie Hendriks

On a probability space $(\Omega,\mathcal{A},\mathbb{Q})$ we consider two filtrations $\mathbb{F}\subset \mathbb{G}$ and a $\mathbb{G}$ stopping time $\theta$ such that the $\mathbb{G}$ predictable processes coincide with $\mathbb{F}$…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2017-02-06 Stéphane Crépey , Shiqi Song

Let $(\Omega, \A, \mu)$ be a Lebesgue space and $T$ an ergodic measure preserving automorphism on $\Omega$ with positive entropy. We show that there is a bounded and strictly stationary martingale difference sequence defined on $\Omega$…

概率论 · 数学 2007-05-23 Mohamed El Machkouri , Dalibor Volny
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