相关论文: On Individual Risk
How should social scientists understand and communicate the uncertainty of statistically estimated causal effects? I propose we utilize the posterior distribution of a causal effect and present the probability of the effect being greater…
A logic is defined that allows to express information about statistical probabilities and about degrees of belief in specific propositions. By interpreting the two types of probabilities in one common probability space, the semantics given…
The aim of this work is to provide a unified framework for ordinal representations of uncertainty lying at the crosswords between possibility and probability theories. Such confidence relations between events are commonly found in monotonic…
Probability-like parameters appearing in some statistical models, and their prior distributions, are reinterpreted through the notion of `circumstance', a term which stands for any piece of knowledge that is useful in assigning a…
This article provides an overview of intimate threats: a class of privacy threats that can arise within our families, romantic partnerships, close friendships, and caregiving relationships. Many common assumptions about privacy are upended…
This paper introduces a qualitative measure of ambiguity and analyses its relationship with other measures of uncertainty. Probability measures relative likelihoods, while ambiguity measures vagueness surrounding those judgments. Ambiguity…
The theory of probability and the quantum theory, the one mathematical and the other physical, are related in that each admits a number of very different interpretations. It has been proposed that the conceptual problems of the quantum…
This paper presents a plausible reasoning system to illustrate some broad issues in knowledge representation: dualities between different reasoning forms, the difficulty of unifying complementary reasoning styles, and the approximate nature…
We review briefly the concepts underlying complex systems and probability distributions. The later are often taken as the first quantitative characteristics of complex systems, allowing one to detect the possible occurrence of regularities…
Spurious association arises from covariance between propensity for the treatment and individual risk for the outcome. For sensitivity analysis with stochastic counterfactuals we introduce a methodology to characterize uncertainty in causal…
Emergent collective group processes and capabilities have been studied through analysis of transactive memory, measures of group task performance, and group intelligence, among others. In their approach to collective behaviors, these…
We initiate the theory of communication complexity of individual inputs held by the agents, rather than worst-case or average-case. We consider total, partial, and partially correct protocols, one-way versus two-way, with and without help…
Possibilistic logic has been proposed as a numerical formalism for reasoning with uncertainty. There has been interest in developing qualitative accounts of possibility, as well as an explanation of the relationship between possibility and…
The risk ratio is a popular tool for summarizing the relationship between a binary covariate and outcome, even when outcomes may be dependent. Investigations of infectious disease outcomes in cohort studies of individuals embedded within…
The underlying idea behind the construction of indices of economic inequality is based on measuring deviations of various portions of low incomes from certain references or benchmarks, that could be point measures like population mean or…
In Basili and Pratelli (2024), a novel and coherent concept of interval probability measures has been introduced, providing a method for representing imprecise probabilities and uncertainty. Within the framework of set algebra, we…
The notion of probability plays an important role in almost all areas of science and technology. In modern mathematics, however, probability theory means nothing other than measure theory, and the operational characterization of the notion…
In this paper we study probabilistic aspects such as subgroup commutativity degree and cyclic subgroup commutativity degree of the (generalized) dicyclic groups. We find explicit formulas for these concepts and we provide another example of…
We describe and contrast two distinct problem areas for statistical causality: studying the likely effects of an intervention ("effects of causes"), and studying whether there is a causal link between the observed exposure and outcome in an…
In this short communication, we describe the recent debate on whether the hazard function should be used for causal inference in time-to-event studies and consider three different potential outcomes frameworks (by Rubin, Robins, and Pearl,…