相关论文: On Individual Risk

In the present article we use the quantum formalism to describe the effects of risk and ambiguity in decision theory. The main idea is that the probabilities in the classic theory of expected utility are estimated probabilities, and thus do…

The discussion on causality in human history dates back to ancient Greece, yet to this day, there is still no consensus. Fundamentally, this stems from the nature of human cognition, as understanding causality requires abstract tools to…

We perform an analysis of the way individual users navigate in the Web. We focus primarily in the temporal patterns of they return to a given page. The return probability as a function of time as well as the distribution of time intervals…

We give a probabilistic analysis of inductive knowledge and belief and explore its predictions concerning knowledge about the future, about laws of nature, and about the values of inexactly measured quantities. The analysis combines a…

Individuals have an intuitive perception of what makes a good coincidence. Though the sensitivity to coincidences has often been presented as resulting from an erroneous assessment of probability, it appears to be a genuine competence,…

Using a probabilistic approach, we derive some interesting combinatorial identities involving gamma and beta functions. These results generalize certain well-known combinatorial identities involving binomial coefficients and special…

The correct use and interpretation of models depends on several steps, two of which being the calibration by parameter estimation and the analysis of uncertainty. In the biological literature, these steps are seldom discussed together, but…

In the interpretation of experimental data, one is actually looking for plausible explanations. We look for a measure of plausibility, with which we can compare different possible explanations, and which can be combined when there are…

We consider biological individuality in terms of information theoretic and graphical principles. Our purpose is to extract through an algorithmic decomposition system-environment boundaries supporting individuality. We infer or detect…

We study probabilistic team semantics which is a semantical framework allowing the study of logical and probabilistic dependencies simultaneously. We examine and classify the expressive power of logical formalisms arising by different…

The propositional logic is generalized on the real numbers field. the logical function with all properties of the classical probability function is obtained. The logical analog of the Bernoulli independent tests scheme is constructed. The…

In this paper we attempt to analyze the concept of quantum probability within quantum computation and quantum computational logic. While the subjectivist interpretation of quantum probability explains it as a reliable predictive tool for an…

With the rise of increasingly powerful and user-facing NLP systems, there is growing interest in assessing whether they have a good representation of uncertainty by evaluating the quality of their predictive distribution over outcomes. We…

We study a natural variant of the implicational fragment of propositional logic. Its formulas are pairs of conjunctions of positive literals, related together by an implicational-like connective; the semantics of this sort of implication is…

Uncertainty enters into human reasoning and inference in at least two ways. It is reasonable to suppose that there will be roles for these distinct uses of uncertainty also in automated reasoning.

In classical physics, probabilistic or statistical knowledge has been always related to ignorance or inaccurate subjective knowledge about an actual state of affairs. This idea has been extended to quantum mechanics through a completely…

The evaluation of the probability of union of a large number of independent events requires several combinations involving the factorial and the use of high performance computers with several hours of processing. Bounds and simplifications…

We generalize the classical probability frame by adopting a wider family of random variables that includes nondeterministic ones. The frame that emerges is known to host a ''classical'' extension of quantum mechanics. We discuss the notion…

Employing a generalized definition of Pratt (1964) and Arrow's (1965, 1971) probability premium, we introduce a new concept of attitude towards probability. We illustrate in a problem of risk sharing that whether attitude towards…

We introduce a notion of computable randomness for infinite sequences that generalises the classical version in two important ways. First, our definition of computable randomness is associated with imprecise probability models, in the sense…