相关论文: On Individual Risk

Tests for proportional hazards assumption concerning specified covariates or groups of covariates are proposed. The class of alternatives is wide: log-hazard rates under different values of covariates may cross, approach, go away. The data…

We introduce two kinds of risk measures with respect to some reference probability measure, which both allow for a certain order structure and domination property. Analyzing their relation to each other leads to the question when a certain…

In statistics education, the concept of population is widely felt hard to grasp, as a result of vague explanations in textbooks. Some textbook authors therefore chose not to mention it. This paper offers a new explanation by proposing a new…

This paper presents complexity analysis and variational methods for inference in probabilistic description logics featuring Boolean operators, quantification, qualified number restrictions, nominals, inverse roles and role hierarchies.…

Probabilities may be subjective or objective; we are concerned with both kinds of probability, and the relationship between them. The fundamental theory of objective probability is quantum mechanics: it is argued that neither Bohr's…

We present a propositional logic to reason about the uncertainty of events, where the uncertainty is modeled by a set of probability measures assigning an interval of probability to each event. We give a sound and complete axiomatization…

The combination of argumentation and probability paves the way to new accounts of qualitative and quantitative uncertainty, thereby offering new theoretical and applicative opportunities. Due to a variety of interests, probabilistic…

The notion of probability plays an important role in almost all areas of science and technology. In modern mathematics, however, probability theory means nothing other than measure theory, and the operational characterization of the notion…

We present a semantics for adding uncertainty to conditional logics for default reasoning and belief revision. We are able to treat conditional sentences as statements of conditional probability, and express rules for revision such as "If A…

In the footsteps of the book \textit{Measure Theory and Integration By and For the Learner} of our series in Probability Theory and Statistics, we intended to devote a special volume of the very probabilistic aspects of the first cited…

Integrated population models (IPMs) combine multiple ecological data types such as capture-mark-recapture histories, reproduction surveys, and population counts into a single statistical framework. In such models, each data type is…

Procyclicality of historical risk measure estimation means that one tends to over-estimate future risk when present realized volatility is high and vice versa under-estimate future risk when the realized volatility is low. Out of it…

I review the classical theory of likelihood based inference and consider how it is being extended and developed for use in complex models and sampling schemes.

We consider the first-order theory of random variables with the probabilistic independence relation, which concerns statements consisting of random variables, the probabilistic independence symbol, logical operators, and existential and…

Personalized decision making targets the behavior of a specific individual, while population-based decision making concerns a sub-population resembling that individual. This paper clarifies the distinction between the two and explains why…

Markov decision processes model systems subject to nondeterministic and probabilistic uncertainty. A plethora of verification techniques addresses variations of reachability properties, such as: Is there a scheduler resolving the…

The problem of individualization is recognized as crucial in almost every field. Identifying causes of effects in specific events is likewise essential for accurate decision making. However, such estimates invoke counterfactual…

Possibility and probability theories are alternative and complementary ways to deal with uncertainty, which has motivated over the last years an interest for the study of ways to transform probability distributions into possibility…

The last few years has seen a growing debate about techniques for managing uncertainty in AI systems. Unfortunately this debate has been cast as a rivalry between AI methods and classical probability based ones. Three arguments for…

Some asymptotic notions for random variables are discussed. In particular, different versions of O and o for sequences of random variables are studied. The results are elementary and more or less well-known, but collected here for future…