相关论文: Modelling Road Accident Blackspots Data with the D…

This study aims to explore the associations between near-crash events and road geometry and trip features by investigating a naturalistic driving dataset and a corresponding roadway inventory dataset using an association rule mining method.

Extreme events occur across the natural, engineering, and socioeconomic sciences, where rare but high-impact episodes can lead to disproportionate consequences that pose major challenges for prediction and risk management. Existing studies…

Understanding and modeling human driver behavior is crucial for advanced vehicle development. However, unique driving styles, inconsistent behavior, and complex decision processes render it a challenging task, and existing approaches often…

Typically, case-control studies to estimate odds-ratios associating risk factors with disease incidence from logistic regression only include cases with newly diagnosed disease. Recently proposed methods allow incorporating information on…

The paper introduces an approach to telematics devices data application in automotive insurance. We conduct a comparative analysis of different types of devices that collect information on vehicle utilization and driving style of its…

Autonomous vehicles (AV) look set to become common on our roads within the next few years. However, to achieve the final breakthrough, not only functional progress is required, but also satisfactory safety assurance must be provided. Among…

We are interested in modeling networks in which the connectivity among the nodes and node attributes are random variables and interact with each other. We propose a probabilistic model that allows one to formulate jointly a probability…

A new stochastic model for daily precipitation occurrence processes observed at multiple locations is developed. The modeling concept is to use the indicator function and the elliptical shape of multivariate Gaussian distribution to…

When modeling a vector of risk variables, extreme scenarios are often of special interest. The peaks-over-thresholds method hinges on the notion that, asymptotically, the excesses over a vector of high thresholds follow a multivariate…

The study of records in the Linear Drift Model (LDM) has attracted much attention recently due to applications in several fields. In the present paper we study $\delta$-records in the LDM, defined as observations which are greater than all…

Pedestrian safety has become an important research topic among various studies due to the increased number of pedestrian-involved crashes. To evaluate pedestrian safety proactively, surrogate safety measures (SSMs) have been widely used in…

This paper presents foundational theoretical results on distributed parameter estimation for undirected probabilistic graphical models. It introduces a general condition on composite likelihood decompositions of these models which…

The Pareto model is very popular in risk management, since simple analytical formulas can be derived for financial downside risk measures (Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall) or reinsurance premiums and related quantities (Large Claim Index,…

This paper proposes a new framework based on joint statistical models for evaluating risks of automated vehicles in a naturalistic driving environment. The previous studies on the Accelerated Evaluation for automated vehicles are extended…

Extreme value distributions are routinely employed to assess risks connected to extreme events in a large number of applications. They typically are two- or three- parameter distributions: the inference can be unstable, which is…

Vehicle telematics provides granular data for dynamic driving risk assessment, but current methods often rely on aggregated metrics (e.g., harsh braking counts) and do not fully exploit the rich time-series structure of telematics data. In…

This work provides a comprehensive analysis on naturalistic driving behavior for highways based on the highD data set. Two thematic fields are considered. First, some macroscopic and microscopic traffic statistics are provided. These…

With the improvements of Los Angeles in many aspects, people in mounting numbers tend to live or travel to the city. The primary objective of this paper is to apply a set of methods for the time series analysis of traffic accidents in Los…

Accurate estimates of long-term risk probabilities and their gradients are critical for many stochastic safe control methods. However, computing such risk probabilities in real-time and in unseen or changing environments is challenging.…

This paper proposes a model to estimate the probability of a vehicle reaching a near-term goal state using one or multiple lane changes based on parameters corresponding to traffic conditions and driving behavior. The proposed model not…