相关论文: Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International…

This paper introduces an alternative procedure for estimating the prevalence of international migration at the municipal level in Colombia. The new methodology uses the empirical best linear unbiased predictor based on a Fay-Herriot model…

Demographic models built from genetic data play important roles in illuminating prehistorical events and serving as null models in genome scans for selection. We introduce an inference method based on the joint frequency spectrum of genetic…

Migration between different habitats is ubiquitous among biological populations. In this Letter, we study a simple quasispecies model for evolution in two different habitats, with different fitness landscapes, coupled through one-way…

We develop simple models for the global spread of infectious diseases, emphasizing human mobility via air travel and the variation of public health infrastructure from region to region. We derive formulas relating the total and peak number…

This paper introduces a new framework to quantify distance between finite sets with uncertainty present, where probability distributions determine the locations of individual elements. Combining this with a Bayesian change point detection…

For estimating area-specific parameters (quantities) in a finite population, a mixed model prediction approach is attractive. However, this approach strongly depends on the normality assumption of the response values although we often…

In this paper, we provide a comprehensive cross-country validation study of compositional mortality modeling and forecasting methods. Thus, we consider two one-to-one transformations: the cumulative distribution function and the centered…

We propose a probabilistic model to aggregate the answers of respondents answering multiple-choice questions. The model does not assume that everyone has access to the same information, and so does not assume that the consensus answer is…

We study the posterior distribution of the Bayesian multiple change-point regression problem when the number and the locations of the change-points are unknown. While it is relatively easy to apply the general theory to obtain the…

Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical models that are useful for representing high-dimensional probability distributions. There has been a great deal of interest in recent years in the NP-hard problem of learning the structure of a BN from…

\noindent The modal age at death is an increasingly used measure for understanding longevity and mortality patterns. However, existing estimation methods focus on point estimates, overlooking the inherent variability and uncertainty in…

Accurate demand forecasting is vital for ensuring reliable access to contraceptive products, supporting key processes like procurement, inventory, and distribution. However, forecasting contraceptive demand in developing countries presents…

The national census is an essential data source to support decision-making in many areas of public interest. However, this data may become outdated during the intercensal period, which can stretch up to several decades. We developed a…

We analyze export data aggregated at world global level of 219 classes of products over a period of 39 years. Our main goal is to set up a dynamical model to identify and quantify plausible mechanisms by which the evolutions of the various…

Estimating the number of migrants who die or go missing along dangerous routes such as the Central Mediterranean remains challenging as available records are incomplete. Some incidents are never documented, and fatalities associated with…

Background: The global spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic has clearly shown the importance of considering the long-range transportation networks in the understanding of emerging diseases outbreaks. The…

We investigate jointly modeling Age-specific rates of various causes of death in a multinational setting. We apply Multi-Output Gaussian Processes (MOGP), a spatial machine learning method, to smooth and extrapolate multiple cause-of-death…

A general population evolution model is considered. Any individual of the population is characterized by its score. Certain general conditions are assumed concerning the number of the individuals and their scores. Asymptotic theorems are…

Macro-level modeling is still the dominant approach in many demographic applications because of its simplicity. Individual-level models, on the other hand, provide a more comprehensive understanding of observed patterns; however, their…

Demographic transition, characterized by declines in fertility and mortality, is a global phenomenon associated with modernization. While typical patterns of fertility decline are observed in Western countries, their applicability to other…