相关论文: Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International…

This paper investigates the time-varying impacts of international macroeconomic uncertainty shocks. We use a global vector autoregressive specification with drifting coefficients and factor stochastic volatility in the errors to model six…

In social networks, neighborhood is crucial for understanding individual behavior in response to environments, and thus it is essential to analyze an individual's local perspective within the global network. This paper studies how to…

Population migration is valuable information which leads to proper decision in urban-planning strategy, massive investment, and many other fields. For instance, inter-city migration is a posterior evidence to see if the government's…

We introduce a generalized Bayesian method for multiple changepoint analysis with a loss function inspired by multinomial logistic regression. The method does not require a specification of the data-generating process and avoids restrictive…

Capture-recapture methods aim to estimate the size of a closed population on the basis of multiple incomplete enumerations of individuals. In many applications, the individual probability of being recorded is heterogeneous in the…

This paper focuses on a class of linear Hawkes processes with general immigrants. These are counting processes with shot noise intensity, including self-excited and externally excited patterns. For such processes, we introduce the concept…

Mortality is different across countries, states and regions. Several empirical research works however reveal that mortality trends exhibit a common pattern and show similar structures across populations. The key element in analyzing…

In this paper we develop a likelihood-free approach for population calibration, which involves finding distributions of model parameters when fed through the model produces a set of outputs that matches available population data. Unlike…

The intrinsic factor that drives the human movement remains unclear for decades. While our observations from intra-urban and inter-urban trips both demonstrate a universal law in human mobility. Be specific, the probability from one…

Populations of interest are often hidden from data for a variety of reasons, though their magnitude remains important in determining resource allocation and appropriate policy. One popular approach to population size estimation, the…

Population structure can be modelled by evolutionary graphs, which can have a substantial, but very subtle influence on the fate of the arising mutants. Individuals are located on the nodes of these graphs, competing with each other to…

We study the analysis of all the movements of the population on the basis of their mobility from one node to another, to observe, measure, and predict the impact of traffic according to this mobility. The frequency of congestion on roads…

Bayesian inference for Markov jump processes (MJPs) where available observations relate to either system states or jumps typically relies on data-augmentation Markov Chain Monte Carlo. State-of-the-art developments involve representing MJP…

Monitoring tools for anticipatory action are increasingly gaining traction to improve the efficiency and timeliness of humanitarian responses. Whilst predictive models can now forecast conflicts with high accuracy, translating these…

We introduce a population-age-time (PAT) model which describes the temporal evolution of the population distribution in age. The surprising result is that the qualitative nature of the population distribution dynamics is robust with respect…

In this paper, we use a linear birth and death process with immigration to model infectious disease propagation when contamination stems from both person-to-person contact and contact with the environment. Our aim is to estimate the…

Reliability plays a key role in the experience of a rail traveler. The reliability of journeys involving transfers is affected by the reliability of the transfers and the consequences of missing a transfer, as well as the possible delay of…

In this paper we afford a quantitative analysis of the sustainability of current world population growth in relation to the parallel deforestation process adopting a statistical point of view. We consider a simplified model based on a…

We propose a novel Bayesian framework for the joint modeling of survey point and variance estimates for count data. The approach incorporates an induced prior distribution on the modeled true variance that sets it equal to the generating…

This paper presents a quantitative framework for forecasting immigrant integration using immigrant density as the single driver. By comparing forecasted integration estimates based on data collected up to specific periods in time, with…