相关论文: Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International…
The growth of a population divided among spatial sites, with migration between the sites, is sometimes modelled by a product of random matrices, with each diagonal elements representing the growth rate in a given time period, and…
Low total fertility rates throughout the world have lead to concerns about economic growth, military security, international political power, environment impacts, and quality of life. Overall total fertility rates of today's societies are…
Human trajectory data is crucial in urban planning, traffic engineering, and public health. However, directly using real-world trajectory data often faces challenges such as privacy concerns, data acquisition costs, and data quality. A…
The question of whether a population will persist or go extinct is of key interest throughout ecology and biology. Various mathematical techniques allow us to generate knowledge regarding individual behaviour, which can be analysed to…
The stage of evolution is the population of reproducing individuals. The structure of the population is know to affect the dynamics and outcome of evolutionary processes, but analytical results for generic random structures have been…
A widely-used model for determining the long-term health impacts of public health interventions, often called a "multistate lifetable", requires estimates of incidence, case fatality, and sometimes also remission rates, for multiple…
We model the joint log-income distribution of parents and children and derive analytic expressions for canonical relative and absolute intergenerational mobility measures. We find that both types of mobility measures can be expressed as a…
Big data presents potential but unresolved value as a source for analysis and inference. However,selection bias, present in many of these datasets, needs to be accounted for so that appropriate inferences can be made on the target…
Evolution in finite populations is often modelled using the classical Moran process. Over the last ten years this methodology has been extended to structured populations using evolutionary graph theory. An important question in any such…
Migration is central in various societal problems related to socioeconomic development. While much of the existing research has focused on international migration, migration patterns within a single country remain relatively unexplored. In…
We consider a spatial branching process with emigration in which children either remain at the same site as their parents or migrate to new locations and then found their own colonies. We are interested in asymptotics of the partition of…
Fine-grained migration data illuminate demographic, environmental, and health phenomena. However, United States migration data have serious drawbacks: public data lack spatial granularity, and higher-resolution proprietary data suffer from…
A series of studies have revealed the among-population components of genetic variation are higher for the paternal Y chromosome than for the maternal mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), which indicates sex-biased migrations in human populations.…
Mathematical method based on a direct or indirect analysis of growth rates is described. It is shown how simple assumptions and a relatively easy analysis can be used to describe mathematically complicated trends and to predict growth. Only…
A partial differential equation governing the global evolution of the joint probability distribution of an arbitrary number of local flow observations, drawn randomly from a control volume, is derived and applied to examples involving…
Monitoring migration flows is crucial to respond to humanitarian crisis and to design efficient policies. This information usually comes from surveys and border controls, but timely accessibility and methodological concerns reduce its…
Recent years have witnessed an explosion of extensive geolocated datasets related to human movement, enabling scientists to quantitatively study individual and collective mobility patterns, and to generate models that can capture and…
This paper presents a simple shrinkage estimator of rates based on Bayesian methods. Our focus is on crime rates as a motivating example. The estimator shrinks each town's observed crime rate toward the country-wide average crime rate…
We study the conjugacy approximation method in the context of Bayesian ranking and selection with unknown correlations. Under the assumption of normal-inverse-Wishart prior distribution, the posterior distribution remains a…
Understanding human migration is of great interest to demographers and social scientists. User generated digital data has made it easier to study such patterns at a global scale. Geo coded Twitter data, in particular, has been shown to be a…