相关论文: Understanding uncertainty in temperature effects o…
Forecasting transmission of infectious diseases, especially for vector-borne diseases, poses unique challenges for researchers. Behaviors of and interactions between viruses, vectors, hosts, and the environment each play a part in…
Malaria control strategies aiming at reducing disease transmission intensity may impact both oocyst intensity and infection prevalence in the mosquito vector. Thus far, mathematical models failed to identify a clear relationship between…
Improving health worldwide will require rigorous quantification of population-level trends in health status. However, global-level surveys are not available, forcing researchers to rely on fragmentary country-specific data of varying…
We propose and analyze an epidemiological model for vector borne diseases that integrates a multi-stage vector population and several host sub-populations which may be characterized by a variety of compartmental model types: subpopulations…
To study the impact of climate variables on morbidity of some diseases in Mexico, we propose a spatio-temporal varying coefficients regression model. For that we introduce a new spatio-temporal dependent process prior, in a Bayesian…
In the face of an infectious disease, a key epidemiological measure is the basic reproduction number, which quantifies the average secondary infections caused by a single case in a susceptible population. In practice, the effective…
The reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or die out. Thresholds for disease extinction contribute crucial knowledge on disease control, elimination, and mitigation…
This paper is concerned with a contemporary Bayesian approach to the effect of temperature on developmental rates. We develop statistical methods using recent computational tools to model four commonly used ecological non-linear…
This article introduces epidemia, an R package for Bayesian, regression-oriented modeling of infectious diseases. The implemented models define a likelihood for all observed data while also explicitly modeling transmission dynamics: an…
The dynamics of epidemic spreading is often reduced to the single control parameter $R_0$, whose value, above or below unity, determines the state of the contagion. If, however, the pathogen evolves as it spreads, $R_0$ may change over…
A previously established multiscale population genetics model states that fitness can be inferred from the physical properties of proteins under the physiological assumption that a loss of stability by any protein confers the lethal…
Identifying the main environmental drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility in the population is crucial for understanding current and potential future outbursts of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases. To address this problem, we…
We propose a compartmental model for vector-transmitted diseases, such as Malaria and Dengue, spreading over complex networks. Individuals are represented by independent random walkers and vectors by infected nodes. Both walkers and nodes…
A class of stochastic vector-borne infectious disease models is derived and studied. The class type is determined by a general nonlinear incidence rate of the disease. The disease spreads in a highly random environment with variability from…
The effective reproduction number $R_t$ measures an infectious disease's transmissibility as the number of secondary infections in one reproduction time in a population having both susceptible and non-susceptible hosts. Current approaches…
A malaria model is formulated which includes the enhanced attractiveness of infectious humans to mosquitoes, as result of host manipulation by malaria parasite, and the human behavior, represented by insecticide-treated bed nets usage. The…
The COVID-19 pandemic provides new motivation for a classic problem in epidemiology: estimating the empirical rate of transmission during an outbreak (formally, the time-varying reproduction number) from case counts. While standard methods…
Despite being similar in structure, functioning, and size viral pathogens enjoy very different mostly well-defined ways of life. They occupy their hosts for a few days (influenza), for a few weeks (measles), or even lifelong (HCV), which…
Modeling buildings' heat dynamics is a complex process which depends on various factors including weather, building thermal capacity, insulation preservation, and residents' behavior. Gray-box models offer a causal inference of those…
Early estimates of the transmission properties of a newly emerged pathogen are critical to an effective public health response, and are often based on limited outbreak data. Here, we use simulations to investigate a potential source of bias…