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Objectives: Our research adopts computational techniques to analyze disease outbreaks weekly over a large geographic area while maintaining local-level analysis by incorporating relevant high-spatial resolution cultural and environmental…

This paper deals with prediction of anopheles number, the main vector of malaria risk, using environmental and climate variables. The variables selection is based on an automatic machine learning method using regression trees, and random…

Infectious disease transmission in human populations has a complex two-way interaction with changes in host behaviour. It is increasingly recognised that incorporating adaptive behavioural change into epidemic models is important for…

Networks of person-person contacts form the substrate along which infectious diseases spread. Most network-based studies of the spread focus on the impact of variations in degree (the number of contacts an individual has). However, other…

When analysing new emerging infectious disease outbreaks one typically has observational data over a limited period of time and several parameters to estimate, such as growth rate, R0, serial or generation interval distribution, latent and…

The impact of wildfire smoke on air quality is a growing concern, contributing to air pollution through a complex mixture of chemical species with important implications for public health. While previous studies have primarily focused on…

Multiple studies have suggested the spread of COVID-19 is affected by factors such as climate, BCG vaccinations, pollution and blood type. We perform a joint study of these factors using the death growth rates of 40 regions worldwide with…

Rabies remains a pressing global public health issue, demanding effective modeling and control strategies. This study focused on developing a mathematical model using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to estimate parameters and assess…

Recent statistics of malaria shows that over 200 million cases and estimated deaths of nearly half a million occur globally. Africa alone accounts for almost 90% of the cases. Several studies have been conducted to understand the disease…

Climate change, which is largely linked to human activities, is already having a considerable impact on our societies. Based on current trends, climate change is expected to accelerate in the coming decades. Beyond its impact on the pace of…

We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria…

The study of infectious disease has been of interest to ecologists since long. The initiation of epidemic and the long term disease dynamics are largely influenced by the nature of the underlying consumer (host)-resource dynamics.…

The annual occurrence of many infectious diseases remains a constant burden to public health systems. The seasonal patterns in respiratory disease incidence observed in temperate regions have been attributed to the impact of environmental…

A multi-patch and multi-group modeling framework describing the dynamics of a class of diseases driven by the interactions between vectors and hosts structured by groups is formulated. Hosts' dispersal is modeled in terms of patch-residence…

Branching processes are widely used to model evolutionary and population dynamics as well as the spread of infectious diseases. To characterize the dynamics of their growth or spread, the basic reproduction number $R_0$ has received…

The vast majority of models for the spread of communicable diseases are parametric in nature and involve underlying assumptions about how the disease spreads through a population. In this article we consider the use of Bayesian…

Bacterial growth models are commonly used for the prediction of microbial safety and the shelf life of perishable foods. Growth is affected by several environmental factors such as temperature, acidity level and salt concentration. In this…

Human pathogens transmitted through environmental pathways are subject to stress and pressures outside of the host. These pressures may cause pathogen pathovars to diverge in their environmental persistence and their infectivity on an…

The viral load is known to be a chief predictor of the risk of transmission of infectious diseases. In this work, we investigate the role of the individuals' viral load in the disease transmission by proposing a new…

Uncertainty can be classified as either aleatoric (intrinsic randomness) or epistemic (imperfect knowledge of parameters). The majority of frameworks assessing infectious disease risk consider only epistemic uncertainty. We only ever…