相关论文: Exact equations for SIR epidemics on tree graphs
We propose an extension of the classical susceptible infectious recovered (SIR) model that incorporates the effects of spatial propagation of an epidemic through a small number of additional compartments. The model is designed to capture…
We consider random walks on dynamical networks where edges appear and disappear during finite time intervals. The process is grounded on three independent stochastic processes determining the walker's waiting-time, the up-time and down-time…
We study the stability properties of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) diffusion model, so-called the $n$-intertwined Markov model, over arbitrary directed network topologies. As in the majority of the work on infection spread…
Stochastic infection processes are continuous-time Markov chains on graphs that assign each vertex one of multiple states, such as susceptible, infected, or recovered. Depending on the model, vertices change their state based on random…
This paper studies the spread dynamics of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and varying population size, which is formulated as a piecewise deterministic Markov process. A threshold dynamic determined by the basic…
In real social networks, person-to-person interactions are known to be heterogeneous, which can affect the way a disease spreads through a population, reaches a tipping point in the fraction of infected individuals, and becomes an epidemic.…
We present a framework to simulate SIR processes on networks using weighted shortest paths. Our framework maps the SIR dynamics to weights assigned to the edges of the network, which can be done for Markovian and non-Markovian processes…
A probabilistic approach to the epidemic evolution on realistic social-contact networks allows for characteristic differences among subjects, including the individual number and structure of social contacts, and the heterogeneity of the…
The spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts among individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. Few empirical studies are however available that…
We present an exact analytical solution to a one-dimensional model of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic type, with infection rates dependent on nearest-neighbor occupations. We use a quantum mechanical approach, transforming…
The disease spreading on complex networks is studied in SIR model. Simulations on empirical complex networks reveal two specific regimes of disease spreading: local containment and epidemic outbreak. The variables measuring the extent of…
We study the SIR epidemic model with infections carried by $k$ particles making independent random walks on a random regular graph. Here we assume $k\leq n^{\epsilon}$, where $n$ is the number of vertices in the random graph, and $\epsilon$…
We introduce non-Markovian SIR epidemic spreading model inspired by the characteristics of the COVID-19, by considering discrete- and continuous-time versions. The incubation period, delayed infectiousness and the distribution of the…
We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model with a contact rate that fluctuates seasonally. Through the use of a nonlinear, stochastic projection, we are able to analytically determine the…
Random networks with specified degree distributions have been proposed as realistic models of population structure, yet the problem of dynamically modeling SIR-type epidemics in random networks remains complex. I resolve this dilemma by…
Infection spread among individuals is modelled with a continuous time Markov chain, in which subject interactions depend on their distance in space. The well known SIR model and non local variants of the latter are then obtained as large…
Connectivity patterns in intermittently-connected mobile networks (ICMN) can be modeled as edge-Markovian dynamic graphs. We propose a new model for epidemic propagation on such graphs and calculate a closed-form expression that links the…
We adopt a maximum-likelihood framework to estimate parameters of a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with contact tracing on a rooted random tree. Given the number of detectees per index case, our estimator allows to…
We study a variant of the classical Markovian logistic SIS epidemic model on a complete graph, which has the additional feature that healthy individuals can become infected without contacting an infected member of the population. This…
In this work, we study the evolution of the susceptible individuals during the spread of an epidemic modeled by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) process spreading on the top of complex networks. Using an edge-based compartmental…