相关论文: Financial black swans driven by ultrafast machine …
NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens) have seen significant growth since they first captured public attention in 2021. However, the NFT market is plagued by fake transactions and economic bubbles, e.g., NFT wash trading. Wash trading typically refers…
The study of heavy-tailed distributions in economic and financial systems has been widely addressed since financial time series has become a research subject.After the eighties, several "highly improbable" market drops were observed (e.g.…
Increased day-trading activity and the subsequent jump in intraday volatility and trading volume fluctuations has raised considerable interest in models for financial market microstructure. We investigate the random transitions between two…
The financial crisis clearly illustrated the importance of characterizing the level of 'systemic' risk associated with an entire credit network, rather than with single institutions. However, the interplay between financial distress and…
The 2023 U.S. banking crisis propagated not through direct financial linkages but through a high-frequency, information-based contagion channel. This paper moves beyond exploration analysis to test the "too-similar-to-fail" hypothesis,…
This study constructs an integrated early warning system (EWS) that identifies and predicts stock market turbulence. Based on switching ARCH (SWARCH) filtering probabilities of the high volatility regime, the proposed EWS first classifies…
Short-term survival and an exuberant plunge into building our future are generating a new kind of unintended consequence -- hidden fragility. This is a direct effect of the sophistication and structural complexity of the socio-technical…
The occurrence of aftershocks following a major financial crash manifests the critical dynamical response of financial markets. Aftershocks put additional stress on markets, with conceivable dramatic consequences. Such a phenomenon has been…
Cascading failures, such as bankruptcies and defaults, pose a serious threat for the resilience of the global financial system. Indeed, because of the complex investment and cross-holding relations within the system, failures can occur as a…
Various works have already showed that common shocks and cross-country financial linkages caused the banking systems of several countries to be highly interconnected with the result that during bad times, banking crises may arise…
As the pioneer of blockchain technology, Bitcoin is the most popular cryptocurrency to date. Given its dramatic price spikes (and crashes) along with the never-ending news from SEC regulations to security breaches, there seems to be a lack…
Following several episodes of financial market turmoil in recent decades, changes in systemic risk have drawn growing attention. Therefore, we propose surveillance schemes for systemic risk, which allow to detect misspecified systemic risk…
Banking system crises are complex events that in a short span of time can inflict extensive damage to banks themselves and to the external economy. The crisis literature has so far identified a number of distinct effects or channels that…
When complex systems are driven to extinction by some external factor, their non-stationary dynamics can present an intermittent behaviour between relative tranquility and burst of activity whose consequences are often catastrophic. To…
The recent financial crisis have generated renewed interests in fragilities of global financial networks among economists and regulatory authorities. In particular, a potential vulnerability of the financial networks is the "financial…
The physical processes that trigger solar flares are not well understood and significant debate remains around processes governing particle acceleration, energy partition, and particle and energy transport. Observations at high resolution…
A hypothesis that the financial log-periodicity, cascading self-similarity through various time scales, carries signatures of a law is pursued. It is shown that the most significant historical financial events can be classified amazingly…
Supply chain disruptions constitute an often underestimated risk for financial stability. As in financial networks, systemic risks in production networks arises when the local failure of one firm impacts the production of others and might…
Financial anomalies arise from heterogeneous mechanisms -- price shocks, liquidity freezes, contagion cascades, and momentum reversals -- yet existing detectors produce uniform scores without revealing which mechanism is failing. This…
Financial markets of emerging economies are vulnerable to extreme and cascading information spillovers, surges, sudden stops and reversals. With this in mind, we develop a new online early warning system (EWS) to detect what is referred to…