相关论文: Tail behavior of solutions of linear recursions on…

The exact expression for the probability density $p_{_N}(x)$ for sums of a finite number $N$ of random independent terms is obtained. It is shown that the very tail of $p_{_N}(x)$ has a Gaussian form if and only if all the random terms are…

This paper is organized in three parts closely related to closure properties of heavy-tailed distributions and heavy-tailed random vectors. In the first part we consider two random variables X and Y with distributions F and G respectively.…

We consider the sums $S_n=\xi_1+\cdots+\xi_n$ of independent identically distributed random variables. We do not assume that the $\xi$'s have a finite mean. Under subexponential type conditions on distribution of the summands, we find the…

In this paper we analyze a branching process with immigration defined recursively by $X_t=\theta_t\circ X_{t-1}+B_t$ for a sequence $(B_t)$ of i.i.d. random variables and random mappings $ \theta_t\circ x:=\theta_t(x)=\sum_{i=1}^xA_i^{(t)},…

Given a sequence $(M_{n},Q_{n})_{n\ge 1}$ of i.i.d. random variables with generic copy $(M,Q)$ such that $M$ is a regular $d\times d$ matrix and $Q$ takes values in $\mathbb{R}^{d}$, we consider the random difference equation (RDE)…

We consider the estimation of small probabilities or other risk quantities associated with rare but catastrophic events. In the model-based literature, much of the focus has been devoted to efficient Monte Carlo computation or analytical…

Despite the successes of probabilistic models based on passing noise through neural networks, recent work has identified that such methods often fail to capture tail behavior accurately, unless the tails of the base distribution are…

A random vector $X$ with representation $X=\sum_{j\geq0}A_jZ_j$ is considered. Here, $(Z_j)$ is a sequence of independent and identically distributed random vectors and $(A_j)$ is a sequence of random matrices, `predictable' with respect to…

We consider a multivariate distributional recursion of sum-type as arising in the probabilistic analysis of algorithms and random trees. We prove an upper tail bound for the solution using Chernoff's bounding technique by estimating the…

Let $\{X_i\}$ be a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables with an intermediate regularly varying (IR) right tail $\bar{F}$. Let $(N, C_1, ..., C_N)$ be a nonnegative random vector independent of the $\{X_i\}$ with…

In this paper we show under weak assumptions that for $R\stackrel{d}{=}1+M_1+M_1M_2+\ldots$, where $P(M\in[0,1])=1$ and $M_i$ are independent copies of $M$, we have $\ln P(R>x)\sim C\, x\ln P(M>1-\frac1x)$ as $x\to\infty$. The constant $C$…

The sums and maxima of weighted non-stationary random length sequences of regularly varying random variables may have the same tail and extremal indices, Markovich and Rodionov (2020). The main constraints are that there exists a unique…

The paper presents an efficient method for simulating the tails of a target variable Z=h(X) which depends on a set of basic variables X=(X_1, ..., X_n). To this aim, variables X_i, i=1, ..., n are sequentially simulated in such a manner…

We consider the random variables $R$ which are solutions of the distributional equation $R\overset{\cL}{=}MR+Q$, where $(Q,M)$ is independent of $R$ and $\ABS{M}\leq 1$. Goldie and Gr\"ubel showed that the tails of $R$ are no heavier than…

We study a random walk on a complex of finitely many half-lines joined at a common origin; jumps are heavy-tailed and of two types, either one-sided (towards the origin) or two-sided (symmetric). Transmission between half-lines via the…

We investigate analytically the distribution tails of the area A and perimeter L of a convex hull for different types of planar random walks. For N noninteracting Brownian motions of duration T we find that the large-L and A tails behave as…

The task for a general and useful classification of the tail behaviors of probability distributions still has no satisfactory solution. Due to lack of information outside the range of the data the tails of the distribution should be…

Consider a sequence of i.i.d. random Lipschitz functions $\{\Psi_n\}_{n \geq 0}$. Using this sequence we can define a Markov chain via the recursive formula $R_{n+1} = \Psi_{n+1}(R_n)$. It is a well known fact that under some mild moment…

We study bivariate stochastic recurrence equations with triangular matrix coefficients and we characterize the tail behavior of their stationary solutions ${\bf W} =(W_1,W_2)$. Recently it has been observed that $W_1,W_2$ may exhibit…

We study the situations when the solution to a weighted stochastic recursion has a power law tail. To this end, we develop two complementary approaches, the first one extends Goldie's (1991) implicit renewal theorem to cover recursions on…