相关论文: Nonlinear softening as a predictive precursor to c…

We develop an early-warning signal for bifurcations of one-dimensional random difference equations with additive bounded noise, based on the asymptotic behaviour of the stationary density near a boundary of its support. We demonstrate the…

Bifurcations can cause dynamical systems with slowly varying parameters to transition to far-away attractors. The terms ``critical transition'' or ``tipping point'' have been used to describe this situation. Critical transitions have been…

Tipping elements of the Earth system may shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another at tipping points, resulting in a growing threat to our society. Yet, it is not fully clear how to assess and quantify the influence of a…

In an ecosystem, environmental changes as a result of natural and human processes can cause some key parameters of the system to change with time. Depending on how fast such a parameter changes, a tipping point can occur. Existing works on…

Social behaviour models are increasingly integrated into climate change studies, and the significance of climate tipping points for `runaway' climate change is well recognised. However, there has been insufficient focus on tipping points in…

The paper introduces a novel topological method for prediction and modeling for a nonlinear time--series that exhibit recurring patterns. According to the model, global manifold of the reconstructed state--space can be approximated by a few…

Tipping to an undesired state in the climate when a control parameter slowly approaches a critical value is a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions rely on detecting early warning signals (EWSs) in…

Complex systems exhibiting critical transitions when one of their governing parameters varies are ubiquitous in nature and in engineering applications. Despite a vast literature focusing on this topic, there are few studies dealing with the…

In several natural and engineering systems, changes in control parameters can trigger bifurcations that lead to sustained or growing periodic oscillations, indicating the onset of oscillatory instabilities. Such emergent behaviour often…

For a model nonlinear dynamical system, we show how one may obtain its bifurcation behavior by introducing noise into the dynamics and then studying the resulting Langevin dynamics in the weak-noise limit. A suitable quantity to capture the…

Linear transient growth analysis is commonly used to suggest the structure of disturbances which are particularly efficient in triggering transition to turbulence in shear flows. We demonstrate that the addition of nonlinearity to the…

Many real world systems are at risk of undergoing critical transitions, leading to sudden qualitative and sometimes irreversible regime shifts. The development of early warning signals is recognized as a major challenge. Recent progress…

A climate state close to a tipping point will have a degenerate linear response to perturbations, which can be associated with extreme values of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this paper we contrast linearized…

Models of complex dynamical systems like the Earth's climate often involve large numbers of uncertain parameters. Comprehensive exploration of the parameter space is typically prohibitive due to excessive computational costs. Systematic…

There have been significant recent advances in our understanding of the potential use and limitations of early-warning signs for predicting drastic changes, so called critical transitions or tipping points, in dynamical systems. A focus of…

Complex dynamical systems may exhibit multiple steady states, including time-periodic limit cycles, where the final trajectory depends on initial conditions. With tuning of parameters, limit cycles can proliferate or merge at an exceptional…

In this paper we analyse a dynamical system based on the so-called KCG (K\"all\'en, Crafoord, Ghil) conceptual climate model. This model describes an evolution of the globally averaged temperature and the average extent of the ice sheets.…

We propose an approximation for the probability of tipping when the speed of parameter change and additive white noise interact to cause tipping. Our approximation is valid for small to moderate drift speeds and helps to estimate the…

Tipping behavior can occur when an equilibrium of a dynamical system loses stability in response to a slowly varying parameter crossing a bifurcation threshold, or where noise drives a system from one attractor to another, or some…

Bifurcations mark qualitative changes of long-term behavior in dynamical systems and can often signal sudden ("hard") transitions or catastrophic events (divergences). Accurately locating them is critical not just for deeper understanding…