相关论文: Nonlinear softening as a predictive precursor to c…

Tipping elements in the Earth System receive increased scientific attention over the recent years due to their nonlinear behavior and the risks of abrupt state changes. While being stable over a large range of parameters, a tipping element…

We identify the phase of a cycle as a new critical factor for tipping points (critical transitions) in cyclic systems subject to time-varying external conditions. As an example, we consider how contemporary climate variability induces…

The competing effect of heterogeneity and symmetry breaking coupling on the emerging dynamics in a system of N globally coupled Stuart-Landau oscillators is investigated. Increasing the heterogeneity, using the standard deviation of the…

Earth system tipping elements have been predominantly investigated for their potential to trigger \textit{negative} ecological, climatic, and societal shifts. Yet, an overlooked but seminal avenue exists in the form of \textit{positive}…

There is growing interest in anticipating critical transitions in natural systems, often pursued through statistical detection of early warning signals associated with dynamical bifurcations. In stochastic dynamical systems, such signals…

Tipping points (TP) are abrupt transitions between metastable states in complex systems, most often described by a bifurcation or crisis of a multistable system induced by a slowly changing control parameter. An avenue for predicting TPs in…

We revisit a recent claim that the Earth's climate system is characterized by sensitive dependence to parameters; in particular, that the system exhibits an asymmetric, large-amplitude response to normally distributed feedback forcing. Such…

Many ecosystems can undergo important qualitative changes, including sudden transitions to alternative stable states, in response to perturbations or increments in conditions. Such 'tipping points' are often preceded by declines in aspects…

Critical transitions, ubiquitous in nature and technology, necessitate anticipation to avert adverse outcomes. While many studies focus on bifurcation-induced tipping, where a control parameter change leads to destabilization, alternative…

Abrupt transitions are ubiquitous in the dynamics of complex systems. Finding precursors, i.e. early indicators of their arrival, is fundamental in many areas of science ranging from electrical engineering to climate. However, obtaining…

Tipping points have been shown to be ubiquitous, both in models and empirically in a range of physical and biological systems. The question of how tipping points cascade through systems has been less well studied and is an important one. A…

Catastrophic transitions, where a system shifts abruptly between alternate steady states, are a generic feature of many nonlinear systems. Recently these regime shift were suggested as the mechanism underlies many ecological catastrophes,…

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential…

Many complex networks are known to exhibit sudden transitions between alternative steady states with contrasting properties. Such a sudden transition demonstrates a network's resilience, which is the ability of a system to persist in the…

Detecting recurrent weather patterns and understanding the transitions between such regimes are key to advancing our knowledge on the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere and have important implications in terms of weather and…

In ecology, climate and other fields, (sub)systems have been identified that can transition into a qualitatively different state when a critical threshold or tipping point in a driving process is crossed. An understanding of those tipping…

Early-warning indicators (increase of autocorrelation and variance) are commonly applied to time series data to try and detect tipping points of real-world systems. The theory behind these indicators originates from approximating the…

The use of critical slowing down as an early warning indicator for regime switching in observations from stochastic environments and noisy dynamical models has been widely studied and implemented in recent years. Some systems, however, have…

We consider a dynamical system undergoing a saddle-node bifurcation with an explicitly time dependent parameter~$p(t)$. The combined dynamics can be considered as a dynamical systems where $p$ is a slowly evolving parameter. Here, we…

One of the most prominent climate tipping elements is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which can potentially collapse due to the input of fresh water in the North Atlantic. Although AMOC collapses have been induced in…