相关论文: Estimation of Kramers-Moyal coefficients at low sa…

When the copula of the conditional distribution of two random variables given a covariate does not depend on the value of the covariate, two conflicting intuitions arise about the best possible rate of convergence attainable by…

Monte Carlo approaches have recently been proposed to quantify connectivity in neuronal networks. The key problem is to sample from the conditional distribution of a single neuronal spike train, given the activity of the other neurons in…

Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods often suffer from long correlation times. Consequently, these methods must be run for many steps to generate an independent sample. In this paper a method is proposed to overcome this difficulty.…

A variety of enhanced statistical and numerical methods are now routinely used to extract comprehensible and relevant thermodynamic information from the vast amount of complex, high-dimensional data obtained from intensive molecular…

In this paper is proposed a novel incremental iterative Gauss-Newton-Markov-Kalman filter method for state estimation of dynamic models given noisy measurements. The mathematical formulation of the proposed filter is based on the…

We consider the problem of estimating a signal from its warped observations. Such estimation is commonly performed by altering the observations through some inverse-warping, or solving a computationally demanding optimization formulation.…

Accurate prediction of rarefied gas flows is important for space vehicle design, particularly in rarefied regimes where the Navier-Stokes equations are no more valid. While the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method acts as a numerical…

In this work we construct an optimal linear shrinkage estimator for the covariance matrix in high dimensions. The recent results from the random matrix theory allow us to find the asymptotic deterministic equivalents of the optimal…

Rare trajectories of stochastic systems are important to understand -- because of their potential impact. However, their properties are by definition difficult to sample directly. Population dynamics provides a numerical tool allowing their…

Marginal structural models are a popular method for estimating causal effects in the presence of time-varying exposures. In spite of their popularity, no scalable non-parametric estimator exist for marginal structural models with…

Parametric estimation for diffusion processes is considered for high frequency observations over a fixed time interval. The processes solve stochastic differential equations with an unknown parameter in the diffusion coefficient. We find…

Non-smooth dynamics driven by stochastic disturbance arise in a wide variety of engineering problems. Impulsive interventions are often employed to control stochastic systems; however, the modeling and analysis subject to execution delay…

The computation of the probability of the first-passage time through a given threshold of a stochastic process is a classic problem that appears in many branches of physics. When the stochastic dynamics is markovian, the probability admits…

Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling has become a standard technique for exploring the posterior distribution of cosmological parameters constrained by observations of CMB anisotropies. Given an infinite amount of time, any MCMC sampler will…

In this paper, we study a notion of local stationarity for discrete time Markov chains which is useful for applications in statistics. In the spirit of some locally stationary processes introduced in the literature, we consider triangular…

We extend the linear mixed-effects state model to accommodate the correlated individuals and investigate its parameter and state estimation based on disturbance smoothing in this paper. For parameter estimation, EM and score based…

Motivated by reduction of computational complexity, this work develops sign-error adaptive filtering algorithms for estimating time-varying system parameters. Different from the previous work on sign-error algorithms, the parameters are…

It is shown that superpositions of path integrals with arbitrary Hamiltonians and different scaling parameters v ("variances") obey the Chapman-Kolmogorov relation for Markovian processes if and only if the corresponding smearing…

This paper presents a technique for reduced-order Markov modeling for compact representation of time-series data. In this work, symbolic dynamics-based tools have been used to infer an approximate generative Markov model. The time-series…

We consider the estimation of large covariance and precision matrices from high-dimensional sub-Gaussian or heavier-tailed observations with slowly decaying temporal dependence. The temporal dependence is allowed to be long-range so with…