相关论文: Predicting economic market crises using measures o…

We study the associations between everyday economic decision-making quality and people's emotional states. Using high-frequency, highly disaggregated consumer "scanner" data, we show that the cost of poor decision-making is substantial, on…

Quantifying uncertainties in collective human behavior and decision making is crucial for ensuring public health and safety, enabling effective disaster response, informing the design of transportation and communication networks, and…

Predicting volatility in financial markets, including stocks, index ETFs, foreign exchange, and cryptocurrencies, remains a challenging task due to the inherent complexity and non-linear dynamics of these time series. In this study, I apply…

The economical world consists of a highly interconnected and interdependent network of firms. Here we develop temporal and structural network tools to analyze the state of the economy. Our analysis indicates that a strong clustering can be…

We study a generic model for self-referential behaviour in financial markets, where agents attempt to use some (possibly fictitious) causal correlations between a certain quantitative information and the price itself. This correlation is…

Social dilemmas are situations in which collective interests are at odds with private interests: pollution, depletion of natural resources, and intergroup conflicts, are at their core social dilemmas. Because of their multidisciplinarity…

We can overcome uncertainty with uncertainty. Using randomness in our choices and in what we control, and hence in the decision making process, could potentially offset the uncertainty inherent in the environment and yield better outcomes.…

We investigate and defend the possibility of causing a stock market crash via small manipulations of individual stock values that together realize an adversarial example to financial forecasting models, causing these models to make the…

Financial market resilience reflects the ability of a financial market to withstand external shocks and to recover from them, while its measurement has yet to be standardized. Accordingly, this paper quantifies the adaptability and…

We discuss how minimal financial market models can be constructed by bridging the gap between two existing, but incomplete, market models: a model in which a population of virtual traders make decisions based on common global information…

The rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) poses new and poorly understood threats to financial stability. We use a game-theoretic model to analyse the stability impact of AI, finding that it amplifies existing financial system…

Motivated by recent financial crises significant research efforts have been put into studying contagion effects and herding behaviour in financial markets. Much less has been said about influence of financial news on financial markets. We…

The global financial crisis in 2007-2009 demonstrated that systemic risk can spread all over the world through a complex web of financial linkages, yet we still lack fundamental knowledge about the evolution of the financial web. In…

I construct a Market Stress Probability Index (MSPI) that estimates the probability of high stress in the U.S. equity market one month ahead using information from the cross-section of individual stocks. Using CRSP daily data, each month is…

A financial market is a system resulting from the complex interaction between participants in a closed economy. We propose a minimal microscopic model of the financial market economy based on the real economy's symmetry constraint and…

The rise of social networks as the primary means of communication in almost every country in the world has simultaneously triggered an increase in the amount of fake news circulating online. This fact became particularly evident during the…

By treating the financial market as a thermodynamic system, we establish a one-to-one correspondence between thermodynamic variables and economic quantities. Measured by the expected loss under the worst-case scenario, financial risk caused…

We study properties of the cross-sectional distribution of returns. A significant anti-correlation between dispersion and cross-sectional kurtosis is found such that dispersion is high but kurtosis is low in panic times, and the opposite in…

Grave human toll notwithstanding, the COVID-19 pandemic created uniquely unstable conditions in financial markets. In this work we uncover and discuss relationships involving sentiment in financial publications during the 2020…

This paper discusses serious drawbacks of existing knowledge in macroeconomics and finance in explaining and predicting economic and financial phenomena. Complexity science is proposed as an alternative approach to be used in order to…