相关论文: Predicting economic market crises using measures o…
The formation of collective opinion is a complex phenomenon that results from the combined effects of mass media exposure and social influence between individuals. The present work introduces a model of opinion formation specifically…
Various works have already showed that common shocks and cross-country financial linkages caused the banking systems of several countries to be highly interconnected with the result that during bad times, banking crises may arise…
Under panicky situation, human have tendency to rush toward a particular direction for escape. I show here that this tendency alone causes increase in crowding and which could eventually trigger jamming that is not preferable. Further, it…
We study the emergence of instabilities in a stylized model of a financial market, when different market actors calculate prices according to different (local) market measures. We derive typical properties for ensembles of large random…
We explore a simple lattice field model intended to describe statistical properties of high frequency financial markets. The model is relevant in the cross-disciplinary area of econophysics. Its signature feature is the emergence of a…
Collective behaviors exhibited by animal groups, such as fish schools, bird flocks, or insect swarms are fascinating examples of self-organization in biology. Concepts and methods from statistical physics have been used to argue…
This position paper discusses emerging behavioral, social, and economic dynamics related to the COVID-19 pandemic and puts particular emphasis on two emerging issues: First, delayed effects (or second strikes) of pandemics caused by dread…
In the current era of worldwide stock market interdependencies, the global financial village has become increasingly vulnerable to systemic collapse. The recent global financial crisis has highlighted the necessity of understanding and…
Nyman and Ormerod (2017) show that the machine learning technique of random forests has the potential to give early warning of recessions. Applying the approach to a small set of financial variables and replicating as far as possible a…
The study of the critical dynamics in complex systems is always interesting yet challenging. Here, we choose financial market as an example of a complex system, and do a comparative analyses of two stock markets - the S&P 500 (USA) and…
We propose a picture of stock market crashes as critical points in a hierachical system with discrete scaling. The critical exponent is then complex, leading to log-periodic fluctuations in stock market indexes. We present ``experimental''…
Synchronization, that occurs both for non-chaotic and chaotic systems, is a striking phenomenon with many practical implications in natural phenomena. However, even before synchronization, strong correlations occur in the collective…
The high-order complexity of human behaviour is likely the root cause of extreme difficulty in financial market projections. We consider that behavioural simulation can unveil systemic dynamics to support analysis. Simulating diverse human…
In this paper, we relate the philosophical literature on pessimism traps to information cascades, a formal model derived from the economics and mathematics literature. A pessimism trap is a social pattern in which individuals in a…
Individuals are often influenced by the behavior of others, for instance because they wish to obtain the benefits of coordinated actions or infer otherwise inaccessible information. In such situations this social influence decreases the ex…
Panic may spread over a crowd in a similar fashion as contagious diseases do in social groups. People no exposed to a panic source may express fear, alerting others of imminent danger. This social mechanism initiates an evacuation process,…
Despite recent advances in uncovering the quantitative features of stationary human activity patterns, many applications, from pandemic prediction to emergency response, require an understanding of how these patterns change when the…
We study the dynamics of correlation and variance in systems under the load of environmental factors. A universal effect in ensembles of similar systems under the load of similar factors is described: in crisis, typically, even before…
Investors in stock market are usually greedy during bull markets and scared during bear markets. The greed or fear spreads across investors quickly. This is known as the herding effect, and often leads to a fast movement of stock prices.…
We make an attempt to map a simple economically motivated model for the price evolution [J. Phys. A: Gen. Math 33, 3637 (2000)] to the phenomenological renormalization group scaling of stock markets. This mapping gives insight into the…