相关论文: Calibration of One- and Two-Factor Models For Valu…

The recent liberalization of the electricity and gas markets has resulted in the growth of energy exchanges and modelling problems. In this paper, we modelize jointly gas and electricity spot prices using a mean-reverting model which fits…

We present a new model for commodity pricing that enhances accuracy by integrating four distinct risk factors: spot price, stochastic volatility, convenience yield, and stochastic interest rates. While the influence of these four variables…

We examine a general multi-factor model for commodity spot prices and futures valuation. We extend the multi-factor long-short model in Schwartz and Smith (2000) and Yan (2002) in two important aspects: firstly we allow for both the long…

We introduce a new and highly tractable structural model for spot and derivative prices in electricity markets. Using a stochastic model of the bid stack, we translate the demand for power and the prices of generating fuels into electricity…

We propose a new structural model that can compute the electricity spot and forward prices in two coupled markets with limited interconnection and multiple fuels. We choose a structural approach in order to represent some key…

How does dynamic price information flow among Northern European electricity spot prices and prices of major electricity generation fuel sources? We use time series models combined with new advances in causal inference to answer these…

Energy companies need efficient procedures to perform market calibration of stochastic models for commodities. If the Black framework is chosen for option pricing, the bottleneck of the market calibration is the computation of the variance…

Polynomial processes have the property that expectations of polynomial functions (of degree $n$, say) of the future state of the process conditional on the current state are given by polynomials (of degree $\leq n$) of the current state.…

The marginal price of electricity traditionally depends on the dual variables associated with relevant optimization goals. Particularly, in the optimal power flow realm, prices represent the cost of supplying an additional unit of power at…

Pricing composite and quanto contracts requires a joint model of both the underlying asset and the exchange rate. In this contribution, we explore the potential of local-correlation models to address the challenges of calibrating synthetic…

We examine the problem of modeling and forecasting European Day-Ahead and Month-Ahead natural gas prices. For this, we propose two distinct probabilistic models that can be utilized in risk- and portfolio management. We use daily pricing…

This paper focuses on the valuation and hedging of gas storage facilities, using a spot-based valuation framework coupled with a financial hedging strategy implemented with futures contracts. The first novelty consist in proposing a model…

In this study we consider the pricing of energy derivatives when the evolution of spot prices is modeled with a normal tempered stable driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Such processes are the generalization of normal inverse Gaussian…

Classical time series models have serious difficulties in modeling and forecasting the enormous fluctuations of electricity spot prices. Markov regime switch models belong to the most often used models in the electricity literature. These…

We consider the one-factor model of commodities for which the parameters of the model depend upon the stock price or on the time. For that model we study the existence of group-invariant transformations. When the parameters are constant,…

In [1], a single-period co-optimization model of energy and reserve is considered to better illustrate the properties of the co-optimization model and the associated market mechanism. To make the discussion more general, in this paper, the…

In this paper we introduce a flexible HJM-type framework that allows for consistent modelling of intraday, spot, futures, and option prices. This framework is based on stochastic processes with economic interpretations and consistent with…

This article proposes a spatial dynamic structural equation model for the analysis of housing prices at the State level in the USA. The study contributes to the existing literature by extending the use of dynamic factor models to the…

Modeling price risks is crucial for economic decision making in energy markets. Besides the risk of a single price, the dependence structure of multiple prices is often relevant. We therefore propose a generic and easy-to-implement method…

In commodity and energy markets swing options allow the buyer to hedge against futures price fluctuations and to select its preferred delivery strategy within daily or periodic constraints, possibly fixed by observing quoted futures…