相关论文: Statistical Curse of the Second Half Rank

A 'Winner's Curse' arises in large-scale online experimentation platforms when the same experiments are used to both select treatments and evaluate their effects. In these settings, classical difference-in-means estimators of treatment…

In a randomised clinical trial, when the result of the primary endpoint shows a significant benefit, the secondary endpoints are scrutinised to identify additional effects of the treatment. However, this approach entails a risk of…

We consider the problem of statistical inference for ranking data, specifically rank aggregation, under the assumption that samples are incomplete in the sense of not comprising all choice alternatives. In contrast to most existing methods,…

What proportion of treated units actually benefited from an experimental intervention? What is the median or the largest individual treatment effect? This paper develops methods for answering such questions about the distribution of…

With the aid of mathematical modelling (basic tool is the random walk with absorbing barriers) we derive subsequent formulas to study the effect of different versions of possible rules. For different rules the probability of winning a game,…

We consider the classical statistical learning/regression problem, when the value of a real random variable Y is to be predicted based on the observation of another random variable X. Given a class of functions F and a sample of independent…

It is well known that accurate probabilistic predictors can be trained through empirical risk minimisation with proper scoring rules as loss functions. While such learners capture so-called aleatoric uncertainty of predictions, various…

This study reports the impact of examining either with digital or paper-based tests in science subjects taught across the second-ary level. With our method, we compare the percentile ranking scores of two cohorts earned in computer- and…

The computational complexity of winner determination is a classical and important problem in computational social choice. Previous work based on worst-case analysis has established NP-hardness of winner determination for some classic voting…

We introduce the Tournament Rank Probability Score (TRPS) as a measure to evaluate and compare pre-tournament predictions, where predictions of the full tournament results are required to be available before the tournament begins. The TRPS…

While PageRank has been extensively used to rank sport tournament participants (teams or individuals), its superiority over simpler ranking methods has been never clearly demonstrated. We use sports results from 18 major leagues to…

We experimentally study voter turnout in two-tier elections when the electorate consists of multiple groups, such as states. Votes are aggregated within the groups by the winner-take-all rule or the proportional rule, and the group-level…

The outcome of some football matches has benefited both teams at the expense of a third team because head-to-head results were used for breaking ties. Inspired by these examples, our mathematical analysis identifies all possible collusion…

Scoring rules are used to evaluate the quality of predictions that take the form of probability distributions. A scoring rule is strictly proper if its expected value is uniquely minimized by the true probability distribution. One of the…

The addition of lower level integrality constraints to a bi-level linear program is known to result in significantly weaker analytical properties. Most notably, the upper level goal function in the optimistic setting lacks lower…

Which statistical features distinguish a meaningful text (possibly written in an unknown system) from a meaningless set of symbols? Here we answer this question by comparing features of the first half of a text to its second half. This…

We investigate the level of success a firm achieves depending on which of two common scoring algorithms is used to screen qualified applicants belonging to a disadvantaged group. Both algorithms are trained on data generated by a prejudiced…

A liquid scorecard has liquid characteristics, for which the characteristic score is a smooth function of the characteristic over a liquid range. The smooth function is based on B-splines, typically cubic. In contrast, the characteristic…

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the extent to which the margin of victory can be predicted solely by the rankings of the opposing teams in NCAA Division I men's basketball games. Several past studies have modeled this…

Evaluating a country's sporting success provides insight into its decision-making and infrastructure for developing athletic talent. The Olympic Games serve as a global benchmark, yet conventional medal rankings can be unduly influenced by…