相关论文: Statistical Curse of the Second Half Rank

Comparisons of different treatments or production processes are the goals of a significant fraction of applied research. Unsurprisingly, two-sample problems play a main role in Statistics through natural questions such as `Is the the new…

The primary analysis for longitudinal randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often compares treatment groups at the last timepoint, referred to as the landmark time. Assuming data are normally distributed and missing at random, the mixed model…

Tournament-based compensation schemes with forced distributions represent a widely adopted class of relative performance evaluation mechanisms in technology and corporate environments. These systems mandate within-team ranking and fixed…

Playing in the FIFA World Cup finals is an ambition shared by several nations. Since, besides luck and skill, the probability of qualification depends on the design of the qualifiers, the study of these competitions forms an integral part…

Some risks have extremely high stakes. For example, a worldwide pandemic or asteroid impact could potentially kill more than a billion people. Comfortingly, scientific calculations often put very low probabilities on the occurrence of such…

The classical ski-rental problem admits a textbook 2-competitive deterministic algorithm, and a simple randomized algorithm that is $\frac{e}{e-1}$-competitive in expectation. The randomized algorithm, while optimal in expectation, has a…

We introduce a new discrepancy score between two distributions that gives an indication on their similarity. While much research has been done to determine if two samples come from exactly the same distribution, much less research…

We consider an extension of the setting of label ranking, in which the learner is allowed to make predictions in the form of partial instead of total orders. Predictions of that kind are interpreted as a partial abstention: If the learner…

Every year in the United States, 800,000 individuals suffer a stroke - one person every 40 seconds, with a death occurring every four minutes. While individual factors vary, certain predictors are more prevalent in determining stroke risk.…

In this paper we provide a novel family of stochastic orders that generalizes second order stochastic dominance, which we call the $\alpha,[a,b]$-concave stochastic orders. These stochastic orders are generated by a novel set of "very"…

Meaningful scores for forecast verification are essential for developing reliable forecasts, and there has been much effort to develop scores that align well with human perceptions of forecast quality. Whilst many of these scores have…

Comprehensive evaluation of machine learning models is the key to make sure that they perform as robustly and consistently as desired. In order to summarize the experimental results and pick a winner, Critical Difference (CD) diagrams are…

A user-focused verification approach for evaluating probability forecasts of binary outcomes (also known as probabilistic classifiers) is demonstrated that is (i) based on proper scoring rules, (ii) focuses on user decision thresholds, and…

Ordered probit and logit models have been frequently used to estimate the mean ranking of happiness outcomes (and other ordinal data) across groups. However, it has been recently highlighted that such ranking may not be identified in most…

Tournaments are frequently used incentive mechanisms to enhance performance. In this paper, we use field data and show that skill disparities among contestants asymmetrically affect the performance of contestants. Skill disparities have…

A common problem in machine learning is to rank a set of n items based on pairwise comparisons. Here ranking refers to partitioning the items into sets of pre-specified sizes according to their scores, which includes identification of the…

We view voting rules as classifiers that assign a winner (a class) to a profile of voters' preferences (an instance). We propose to apply techniques from formal explainability, most notably abductive and contrastive explanations, to…

Statistics is sometimes described as the science of reasoning under uncertainty. Statistical models provide one view of this uncertainty, but what is frequently neglected is the 'invisible' portion of uncertainty: that assumed not to exist…

Predicting the outcome of elections, sporting events, entertainment awards, and other competitions has long captured the human imagination. Such prediction is growing in sophistication in these areas, especially in the rapidly growing field…

In this expository note we describe a surprising phenomenon in overparameterized linear regression, where the dimension exceeds the number of samples: there is a regime where the test risk of the estimator found by gradient descent…