相关论文: Quarantine generated phase transition in epidemic …
A Markovian SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) model is considered for the spread of an epidemic on a configuration model network, in which susceptible individuals may take preventive measures by dropping edges to infectious neighbours.…
Many progresses in the understanding of epidemic spreading models have been obtained thanks to numerous modeling efforts and analytical and numerical studies, considering host populations with very different structures and properties,…
We show that precise knowledge of epidemic transmission parameters is not required to build an informative model of the spread of disease. We propose a detailed model of the topology of the contact network under various external control…
Most real-world networks are not isolated. In order to function fully, they are interconnected with other networks, and this interconnection influences their dynamic processes. For example, when the spread of a disease involves two species,…
Human behavior plays a critical role in shaping epidemic trajectories. During health crises, people respond in diverse ways in terms of self-protection and adherence to recommended measures, largely reflecting differences in how individuals…
Compartmental models of epidemics are widely used to forecast the effects of communicable diseases such as COVID-19 and to guide policy. Although it has long been known that such processes take place on social networks, the assumption of…
In the context of the recent COVID-19 outbreak, quarantine has been used to "flatten the curve" and slow the spread of the disease. In this paper, we show that this is not the only benefit of quarantine for the mitigation of an SIR epidemic…
We study the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of an infectious disease. In this stochastic process, there are two competing mechanism: infection and recovery. Susceptible individuals may contract the disease…
To describe the dynamics of social distancing during pandemics, we follow previous efforts to combine basic epidemiology models (e.g. SIR - Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered) with game and economy theory tools. We present an extension of…
The epidemic curve and the final extent of the COVID-19 pandemic are usually predicted from the rate of early exponential raising using the SIR model. These predictions implicitly assume a full social mixing, which is not plausible…
In this paper we consider a model for the spread of a stochastic SIR (Susceptible $\to$ Infectious $\to$ Recovered) epidemic on a network of individuals described by a random intersection graph. Individuals belong to a random number of…
We introduce an extension to Kermack and McKendrick's classic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in epidemiology, whose underlying mechanism of infection consists of individuals attending randomly generated social gatherings. This…
During the COVID pandemic, periods of exponential growth of the disease have been mitigated by containment measures that in different occasions have resulted in a power-law growth of the number of cases. The first observation of such…
In this work we review a class of deterministic nonlinear models for the propagation of infectious diseases over contact networks with strongly-connected topologies. We consider network models for susceptible-infected (SI),…
We develop a theory for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model on networks that incorporate both network structure and dynamic correlations. This theory can account for the multistage onset of the epidemic phase in…
We investigate the evolution of epidemics over dynamical networks when nodes choose to interact with others in a selfish and decentralized manner. Specifically, we analyze the susceptible-asymptomatic-infected-recovered (SAIR) epidemic in…
We present a stochastic model for two successive SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) epidemics in the same network structured population. Individuals infected during the first epidemic might have (partial) immunity for the second one.…
In this work, the aim is to study the spread of a contagious disease and information on a multilayer social system. The main idea is to find a criterion under which the adoption of the spreading information blocks or suppresses the epidemic…
Changing environmental conditions can significantly affect the dynamics of disease spread. These changes may arise naturally or result from human interventions; in the latter case, lockdown measures that lead to abrupt but temporary…
The effects of local and global connectivity on the spread of synergistic susceptible-infected-removed epidemics were studied in lattice models with infinite- and finite-range rewiring (small-world and small-world-like models). Several…